Bitcoin - The Silence is Deafening
One thing we know, is though time changes, and a new generation of traders and investors enter the market, history still repeats. The same is observed with herd behavior in the wild. Two or three generations go by the herd still migrates as it has done for 1000's of years. Trading and investing is no different. This is not something new, and the proof this still happens is evident in the similarities of chart patterns. No matter how many bubbles, no matter how often a low is in, the herd reacts the same.
Just because a bubble pops does not imply it is dead. Markets cycle from bullish to bearish and the herd is simply caught up in the sentiment. We seen this recently with the stock market where only 2 weeks ago, the world was coming to an end, and millennial traders were shorting the market at or near a low, using instruments such as SQQQ' or SPXU'. Bragging across trading groups how they were killing it and then all of a sudden......... can you hear the silence?
Bitcoin is no different here, and though it appears that we are still moving lower, the 80's gold' bubble may shed some light on where we are in the cycle. Like herds migrate, markets cycle. Why would you be against the cycle? Yes maybe this time is different and like many dotcom and biotech companies that failed this market does too. Yet there were survivors of the dotcom and biotech bubbles and having the foresight to invest in them at their lows paid off in the LONG TERM.
If there was one coin that has the highest potential to survive it is Bitcoin' in my opinion. Even Ethereum' is having scaling issues and is having to make modifications to the how it processes the block chain to accommodate this. Bitcoin' is still simple in the way it processes payments, and regardless of the Ver's and Wright's that think they have a better project, they don't. Again this is just my opinion and we are all subject to our own. If I was in Vegas and at the sportsbook, which coin would I bet on? Bitcoin'!
Bitcoin' is showing the structure of entering another range bound market. The lower 3k's to the lower 4's is the current range. Until we break through 4500 we will assume it is range bound and position accordingly. How do I know this? I don't, it is just experience in seeing how markets bottom over time. This is a typical bottoming structure that begins with a range bound market, moves up forms a higher range bound market and then starts to run. Often when markets are out of favor large players raid a market and push it lower in order to accumulate at better prices.
We see this often in every market just not cryptos. To think that market manipulation does not take place in other markets outside the crypto space is naive. Manipulation happens in all markets, and is simply part of the game.
So as we enter another range bound market, is this the time to start accumulating?
As a long time gold' and silver' investor over the years, I am less concerned about where the price is and just accumulate whenever I get the opportunity. I do this consistently not worried about further pullbacks because I have seen personally the rallies that take place once the herd migrates back. This is an area of accumulation not to be shorting. Why would you short at a low? Can we go lower? Sure we can, but let's take a look at the market cycle of gold' and compare it to see if there are any similarities with Bitcoin'.
Above is a comparison of Bitcoin' and gold' and you can see the similarities in how the market cycled over a longer period of time. Fortunately for us Bitcoin' has done in slightly over a year, what took gold over 20 to go through. If you stacked gold' over the 20 years not concerned about what the price was in the interim 20 years of accumulation paid off over the next 12 years. It took a long time, however the cycle for Bitcoin' is moving much faster. Thank God right? Well we never know if Bitcoin' will recover or not but if it continues with how the market cycled with gold' the payoff should be sooner than later.
Gold' took only 4 years from the low to push back to it's 80's high. Seeing it took 20 years to finally bottom we can look at this as a ration or 1/5 the time it took to reach the point where everyone gave up, it pushed the previous high. So does this imply Bitcoin' hits the previous high in say 2-3 months? Probably not, but you never know, and if the SEC' decides to allow one of the new products into the market such as a Bitcoin' etf the market is sure to rally. You will not catch this move, and being short in front of an announcement is no different than shorting a biotech stock ahead of the FDA' releasing its test data. Many have been devastated by those releases.
Either way we just have to remain patient and let the market go through it's cycle. Is there anything wrong with adding at these levels? Nope, but like eating donuts it should be done in moderation, with the understanding we can still push lower. Sentiment is at a low and the talk around the table is no longer about Bitcoin' it is about the stock market. The silence is deafening, but it as long as price can maintain a range throughout the sound of silence this is a good thing. This is where larger investors are accumulating under the guise of silence. After all who else is buying here? The retail investor ;).
The new proposed Bitcoin' etf's will actually hold physical Bitcoin' stored an insured. You think the brokers are going to wait until they release the etf to buy? Probably not, they want to have inventory on hand, as they understand an approval will likely result in a rally.
Just because a bubble pops does not imply it is dead. Markets cycle from bullish to bearish and the herd is simply caught up in the sentiment. We seen this recently with the stock market where only 2 weeks ago, the world was coming to an end, and millennial traders were shorting the market at or near a low, using instruments such as SQQQ' or SPXU'. Bragging across trading groups how they were killing it and then all of a sudden......... can you hear the silence?
Bitcoin is no different here, and though it appears that we are still moving lower, the 80's gold' bubble may shed some light on where we are in the cycle. Like herds migrate, markets cycle. Why would you be against the cycle? Yes maybe this time is different and like many dotcom and biotech companies that failed this market does too. Yet there were survivors of the dotcom and biotech bubbles and having the foresight to invest in them at their lows paid off in the LONG TERM.
If there was one coin that has the highest potential to survive it is Bitcoin' in my opinion. Even Ethereum' is having scaling issues and is having to make modifications to the how it processes the block chain to accommodate this. Bitcoin' is still simple in the way it processes payments, and regardless of the Ver's and Wright's that think they have a better project, they don't. Again this is just my opinion and we are all subject to our own. If I was in Vegas and at the sportsbook, which coin would I bet on? Bitcoin'!
Bitcoin' is showing the structure of entering another range bound market. The lower 3k's to the lower 4's is the current range. Until we break through 4500 we will assume it is range bound and position accordingly. How do I know this? I don't, it is just experience in seeing how markets bottom over time. This is a typical bottoming structure that begins with a range bound market, moves up forms a higher range bound market and then starts to run. Often when markets are out of favor large players raid a market and push it lower in order to accumulate at better prices.
We see this often in every market just not cryptos. To think that market manipulation does not take place in other markets outside the crypto space is naive. Manipulation happens in all markets, and is simply part of the game.
So as we enter another range bound market, is this the time to start accumulating?
As a long time gold' and silver' investor over the years, I am less concerned about where the price is and just accumulate whenever I get the opportunity. I do this consistently not worried about further pullbacks because I have seen personally the rallies that take place once the herd migrates back. This is an area of accumulation not to be shorting. Why would you short at a low? Can we go lower? Sure we can, but let's take a look at the market cycle of gold' and compare it to see if there are any similarities with Bitcoin'.
Above is a comparison of Bitcoin' and gold' and you can see the similarities in how the market cycled over a longer period of time. Fortunately for us Bitcoin' has done in slightly over a year, what took gold over 20 to go through. If you stacked gold' over the 20 years not concerned about what the price was in the interim 20 years of accumulation paid off over the next 12 years. It took a long time, however the cycle for Bitcoin' is moving much faster. Thank God right? Well we never know if Bitcoin' will recover or not but if it continues with how the market cycled with gold' the payoff should be sooner than later.
Gold' took only 4 years from the low to push back to it's 80's high. Seeing it took 20 years to finally bottom we can look at this as a ration or 1/5 the time it took to reach the point where everyone gave up, it pushed the previous high. So does this imply Bitcoin' hits the previous high in say 2-3 months? Probably not, but you never know, and if the SEC' decides to allow one of the new products into the market such as a Bitcoin' etf the market is sure to rally. You will not catch this move, and being short in front of an announcement is no different than shorting a biotech stock ahead of the FDA' releasing its test data. Many have been devastated by those releases.
Either way we just have to remain patient and let the market go through it's cycle. Is there anything wrong with adding at these levels? Nope, but like eating donuts it should be done in moderation, with the understanding we can still push lower. Sentiment is at a low and the talk around the table is no longer about Bitcoin' it is about the stock market. The silence is deafening, but it as long as price can maintain a range throughout the sound of silence this is a good thing. This is where larger investors are accumulating under the guise of silence. After all who else is buying here? The retail investor ;).
The new proposed Bitcoin' etf's will actually hold physical Bitcoin' stored an insured. You think the brokers are going to wait until they release the etf to buy? Probably not, they want to have inventory on hand, as they understand an approval will likely result in a rally.
פרסומים קשורים
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.