What to expect from Bitcoin next week and recommendations

15 בדצמ׳ 2024

1. General analysis of the current trend

Moving Averages (SMA):
The price is trading above all major moving averages (fast, medium, slow), confirming the presence of an upward trend. The widening gap between the moving averages indicates that the trend is currently strong.
Conclusion: The uptrend remains intact, but a temporary correction or false breakout is possible.

ADX (Average Directional Index):
ADX = 16.64, indicating weak trend strength. A rise in the ADX above 20 would confirm a stronger continuation of the trend.
Conclusion: The trend is weak but could strengthen or experience strong volatility.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI = 62.42. This value is in a neutral to bullish range and not yet in overbought territory (above 70). In an uptrend, the RSI often lingers in the 60-80 range without signaling a reversal. However, the current level indicates the possibility of a mild pullback.
Conclusion: The RSI does not indicate a reversal yet, but a further move towards 70 or a divergence may signal a weakening momentum.

ATR (Average True Range):
ATR = 1.1, indicating low volatility. Such conditions often precede a strong move in either direction.
Conclusion: Be prepared for a sudden increase in volatility that could result in a sharp price movement.

Volume:
Trading volume has decreased, a common sign of trend exhaustion or consolidation. If volume spikes during a breakout, it will be crucial to assess whether the breakout is sustainable or fading.
Conclusion: Weak volume suggests that any breakout may be temporary unless confirmed by increased trading activity.

2. Key levels to watch

Resistance:
102,500-103,000 USDT is a critical zone where many stop losses from short sellers and buy stop orders are likely to be concentrated.

Support:
99,500 USDT is the next support level for a potential pullback.
97,000 USDT is a stronger support zone that could attract buying interest.

Critical support:
95,000 USDT is a key level. A break below it could signal a trend reversal.

3. Possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Continuation of the bullish trend (30% probability)

Conditions:

• Price breaks through resistance at 102,500-103,000 USDT with increased volume.
  
• ADX rises above 20, confirming the strength of the trend.
  
• RSI moves into the 70-75 range without showing divergence.
  

Target: 105,000-107,000 USDT.

Scenario 2: Correction (40% probability)

Conditions:

• Price fails to hold above resistance at 102,500 USDT and volume remains low.
  
• RSI fails to break through 70 and begins to fall towards 50.
  
• Price retreats to support levels at 99,500 or 97,000 USDT for liquidity accumulation.
  

Target: 99,500-97,000 USDT.

Scenario 3: Liquidity accumulation above resistance followed by a decline (20% probability)

Conditions:

• The price briefly surges above resistance at 102,500-103,000 USDT, triggering stop-loss and buy-stop orders.
  
• After gathering liquidity above resistance, the price quickly reverses back below 102,500, confirming a false breakout.
  
• Volume spikes during the breakout, but quickly diminishes, signaling a lack of follow-through from buyers.
  
• RSI shows divergence (price makes a new high, but RSI fails to follow).

Expected movement:
First leg up: The price rises to 103,500-104,000 USDT to gather liquidity.
Second leg down: Price falls back to 99,500 or 97,000 USDT.

Scenario 4: Trend reversal (10% probability)

Conditions:

• Price breaks below key support at 95,000 USDT, accompanied by a volume spike.
  
• The RSI drops below 40 and the ADX signals a strong bearish impulse.
  
• The structure shifts to "lower highs and lower lows".
  

Target: 90,000-85,000 USDT.

5. Recommendations

For those holding positions:

• Protect your profits by placing a stop loss just below 99,500 USDT.
  
• If the price breaks through resistance at 102,500, monitor whether it holds above this level. A failure to hold could signal a liquidity grab.
  

For those looking to enter:

• For long positions: wait for a pullback to 99,500 or 97,000 USDT and look for confirmation (e.g. bullish candlestick patterns, increased volume).
  

6. Additional factors for analysis

Candlestick patterns:

• The current candlestick patterns do not indicate a clear reversal.
  
• At the 102,500 resistance level, look for doji, shooting star, or hammer patterns that could signal a reversal or correction.
  
• Near the 99,500 support level, look for bullish patterns such as Engulfing or Morning Star, which could indicate a bounce.
  

Fundamental Factors:

• News and macroeconomic events: Monitor updates related to BTC (e.g., ETF approvals, regulatory changes) or macroeconomic events such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions (Dec. 17-18) and inflation data, as these can impact market sentiment.
  
• Liquidity Reports: Track BTC liquidity on exchanges. For example: if whales or institutional players withdraw significant amounts of BTC from exchanges, it could reduce supply and drive up the price. Conversely, increased deposits on exchanges could indicate selling pressure.
  

Conclusion

The most likely scenario is a pullback to the 99,500–97,000 USDT levels, providing liquidity for a continuation of the uptrend. However, a liquidity grab above resistance (Scenario 3) could also occur, where the price briefly spikes above 102,500–103,000 USDT before reversing sharply to lower levels. A full trend reversal remains unlikely unless the support at 95,000 USDT is breached.