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SatochiTrader Expecting a huge BTC CRASH AFTER This..

BTC Market Update by SatochiTrader
EVERY CRASH DID START WITH A FALSE INCREASE TREND.

Depending on the market sentiment and price action, BTC is currently showing strength with a positive trend. However, based on deeper data and insights held by myself and a small group of early-cycle followers, this current movement may be a deceptive signal — potentially foreshadowing a major crash.

This is not trading advice. Those who are confident in the long position should continue, and those on the other side should stay prepared as well.

We have previously explained that the current cycle appears to have ended. Since 2013, BTC has consistently respected its macro cycle targets. The end of such a cycle typically leads to significant corrections.

A cycle ending implies not just a retracement, but the potential for a major crash. Hedge funds and real BTC whales understand the underlying indicators and risks at play. Our expectation remains clear: BTC may soon fall below the 100K level, with $85K identified as a critical support and target zone.

Stay sharp. Stay informed. The market may look bullish — until it isn't.

The best way to follow BTC is not the news.. but the cycle overview.
This update is an education update, which means the high expectations of the upcoming correction for BTC.

Compared to last quarter, miners are now less severely underpaid, though profitability remains low

הערה

BTC did end the cycle in this area, and did not meet the cycle rule of 1.2 time frame to enter new cycle, on this reason also BTC has high chance to return back below 100K
Every BTC cycle did confirm the 1.2 time frame, and we expect this should also, what not happen, which means that this is a false increase trend that can return asp to the start point.

הערה

Based on our analysis using the 1.2 timeframe and cycle data, our primary expectation is that BTC will drop below $100K. Although BTC currently appears strong within the 1.2 data window, we are approaching the end of a cycle — with no confirmation of a new one starting.

This suggests that the current long volume may be misleading — a potential false signal — and could lead to a renewed downtrend, pushing BTC below the $100K level. Hedge funds and major whales should pay close attention to the 1.2 pattern, as it has historically repeated itself with BTC.

עסקה פעילה

HERE IS AN EXPLANATION IN 10% VIEW.

הערה

BTC looks very bullish and green, but the deep data shows what else.

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Creating false volume is the best way to change the trend. All BTC crash views happened after green false volume.

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Which means over 3H +-

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The same theory about false volume, we have seen more times on high levels and low time frames as this

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BTC is at the top. The coming time is important after the end of cycle 2025.

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Even with the increases that we see now up 108K. BTC can start the correction at any time.
We have seen this more time in the history of btc after false volume.

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

104K is the first expected target, by full crash trend,BTC can target 85K soon as the main target.

הערה

Daily miner revenue is dropping sharply; this could lead to a major price panic.
There are some signals that we will get a miner effect which can change drop the price.

Potential domino effect
If many miners can no longer operate profitably, they may be forced to shut down or sell their machines. This could lead to a decline in the network (lower hashrate), reduced security, and potentially further downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

הערה

Extremely underpaid miners can play a role in this, expecting an upcoming crash.

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Low time frame, all the trends that did start with false volume did return to the main line yellow line, and expecting this one also: affected on weekly effect.(7days range)

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The return of USdollar could support the expecting depending on data about BTC crash

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If we could give BTC at this moment a value, then it would be 57K - all above 57K = overflow volume.

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BTC can show a false volume, which seems to be strong ( like it has always been before the trend started to crash. Check all BTC crashes, and you will see first a green false volume before the crash starts. That's why we follow the cycle start and ending to view BTC trend.

הערה

BTC Update – Low Time Frame

On the low time frames, BTC is currently showing a stable trend around the 107K level, which is acting as a key support for now. However, the 3H chart is revealing an important developing trend that could lead to a potential bearish reversal, especially if accompanied by increasing volume.

A move down toward 105K would significantly increase the likelihood of a stronger downward continuation, potentially triggering a more aggressive correction in the short term.

הערה

Data shows that the processing of crash 2 is already in progress.

Time is the key.

הערה

Markets are unpredictable and not move in a straight line.
When we anticipate a market crash, it typically unfolds in trends rather than all at once. For Bitcoin (BTC) to eventually reach 85K, it may take some time and multiple phases.

The key to confirming this trend is a breakdown below the 105K level, which could occur in the coming hours or days.
105K is a critical support level and also a liquidity zone.

If BTC breaks below it, we expect the price to trend down toward 100K and potentially lower.
This expecting made depending on end of cycle BTC with confirmation.

הערה

Important low time frame view from the other side ( last increase trend is not confirmed, and time frame seems to be over on the normally static movement.

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105K zone is a high LIQ zone for LONGS, which can affect the price with a high drop to the 101K zone or below.

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It happened before onthe same level

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update:
Part Whales try to secure 106K support with a return to 107K. ( This can end in a manipulation trend, which can bring BTC to the important risk zone of 105K.

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The low time frame changed to 106200, There is a high chance that when we target this level, BTC will go over the LIQ overfull volume to break down further. it means changed from 105K to 106K

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as SatochiTrader Market Update

Having witnessed many market cycles, I believe it is only a matter of time before BTC resumes a breakdown trend.

Key levels to watch:

106K is now a critical pivot. If it fails, BTC could extend its move down to 101K or lower.

From 101K, the next target zone is around 85K, which remains the main support level to monitor.

In my view, the real value of BTC — without excess speculative volume — currently sits around 57K.

Stay vigilant.

הערה

How it happened before, we expect it will happen again. The same false volume.. There is no better example than this chart. We have seen strong up false volume, what happend is the key for the next chart update:

הערה

Update:
BTC try to play on trend between 106K and 107k +
There is a secure manipulation volume on 106K, when this will breakdown we could see with high chance a fall of BTC to 101K and lower with time.
Volume below 106K can cause a free fall

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BETA IDEA of first breakdown - Means not it should happpen exactly but the main trend is same.

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Risk zone changed to 106500

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The more stable BTC becomes, and the more time that passes, the better it is for the risk zone to expand. Its price has increased for risk zone expansion from $105,000 to $106,500, and it could rise even further.

The risk zone refers to a level at which BTC could experience a drop, depending on market data. In this context, stability is an advantage.

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Month june data
3 times this month the price action starts a false volume /all previous ones did return below 104K

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Risk zone changed to 106800

New follow soon.

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It's healthy and good when BTC increases in the zone of 108K, which makes the risk zone increase to 107K with time, and when BTC gets a correction to that area, we can see a LIQ compass.

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Finally, 107K becomes the LIQ ZONE.
There will be positive news.. but more important is the data. We will update until the expected crash on this update.
with targets 101K and below 100K.

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RISK zone increasing up with new time frames

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New beta idea

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With a high chance next 24 hours will be very important for the trend that i did update.
Price is now over 108300

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We come closer to the important RISK ZONE OF BTC

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The time frame confirmation is very important.

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We are exactly now at the risk zone.

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Time frame confirmation is important in the coming hours, how stable BTC stays, and how better it is for the next trend ( it depends on time processing.

הערה

At this moment, is time frame confirmation important
Time and time can make the change. ---> BTC is now in the risk zone.

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Live data 103K - 104K can become the next fall

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Next 16H = very important for the final confirmation.
We will follow the next 16 hours and see you then again with a new update.

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104K is an important target, which can be confirmed in the coming time.

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The 16H confirmation of the trend is about to end.
BTC can target the 104K and below, as added before.

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main target

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Even with the last false volume today, BTC is still in the breakdown.
As long as the confirmation of the breakdown is still active, BTC can break down unexpectedly.

הערה

If BTC stays below this zone, than we are into safe zone, and even if it target this zone, BTC is still positive since there need be time frame confirmation before it can change from breakdown to uptrend, for now BTC is positive

הערה

It is completely normal for trading charts to change. There is no such thing as a market that only moves in one direction. Trends can shift from time to time, but the key questions to keep asking are: What is the main direction of the market? and What phase of the cycle are we in right now?

הערה

Ideally, BTC should have recovered here and resumed its uptrend. This is not happen
Which means we can get a new correction, even if there is new volume coming high chance it will be false volume with correction. if there was really an interest, than Btc was already confirmed for an uptrend.

הערה

We have seen an unexpected volume, from an unknown side, that is getting over the previous breakdown trend.
Depending on the data, is this a false volume, which can occur in the coming time frames.

When there is a confirmed uptrend volume, we will add it also, but that's not the case now.

Since the history of BTC, the data of time frame did work with a confirmed volume and false volume

הערה

Find out that this can be the MNG 200 trading way, which whales use for profitable extra trades, which means a not confirmed volume ( can be done for PNL) if this is true, what we expect, then we can see a breakdown of this level by 15 min chart time frame changes.

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Stay tuned for updates on BTC/USDT — new information will be added here as it becomes available

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Until this level, over 18H is only a watch time frame level, which means there will be no action on the side of trading until BTC confirms this time frame. The ensure there is no play trend it's important to follow the confirmation of the time frame.

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After the watch zone, BTC did target. if BTC stays below the watch time frame line, then we are still not in an uptrend.
When BTC enters this line with 6h+ confirmations, it means the breakdown time frame ends for the coming time.

For now, BTC is still not confirmed for an uptrend.

There is an unexpected volume that also depends on the Middle East..

הערה

Bitcoin is still in the breakdown trend, there is no 6h+ confirmation

הערה

BTC did stay below the 6h+ confirmation line, which means BTC is still in a breakdown trend.

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