Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

4 ביולי

Bitcoin's price began to decline at the end of June due to news that the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox is ready to repay its creditors. Additionally, the crypto market faced pressure from ETF outflows and miner capitulation. As a result, the BTC price formed a technical analysis pattern known as a Double Top. It has reached the first target of our previous overview - the 1H Imbalance zone. Currently, it is retesting the ascending trendline, which will determine the future direction of the price movement. If sellers push through and the price consolidates below the support level, we expect it to drop to the next targets - the 4H and 1D Imbalance zones. There are significant gaps in horizontal trading volume levels that need to be filled with trading activity. In the same range, the 0.61 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels are located, where we anticipate the correction to end if it becomes deeper.

For the resumption of growth, the price needs to consolidate above the EMA 50 4H dynamic resistance line and return above the Point of Control (POC) level. In this case, we expect a retest of the descending trendline resistance.




📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price continues to move within the Expanding Wedge pattern and has also formed a Double Top pattern. If BTC's price breaks below the lower boundary of the Expanding Wedge during the retest, we expect the Double Top pattern to be confirmed with a movement corresponding to its height. The targets of this movement could be the 1D and 1W Imbalance zones, where we will anticipate a trend reversal and the resumption of growth.

What could the next growth phase look like? Above the current ATH, there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and the analysis of large order block clusters in order books. We have a local ascending trendline that has been relevant since November 2023. Its test could occur at the 75,000 - 76,000 level, which is confirmed by a large block of pending orders. Higher, in the 80,000 - 90,000 range, lies the global trendline built on the peaks of the previous two Bitcoin cycles. Additionally, the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level is located in that area. The highest trendline is in the 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci extension range, and its test could start at the 100,000 level.




💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels

The index of fear and greed is in the fear zone - 44.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell to $2089 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index increased to 54.8.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks of orders in the order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 50,000 - 56,000
🔴 Supply zone: 70,000 - 80,000

Levels for long positions:
55,000 - 57,000 - retest of the trend line and large support block
52,000 - 53,000 - large support block
50,000 - psychological level of support

Levels for short positions:
70,000 - psychological resistance level
72,000 - large resistance block
75,000 - large resistance block
90,000 - global trend line




📊 Fundamental analysis

Bitcoin's price started to decline in late June on news that the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox, which failed in 2014, is ready to repay its creditors. If the creditors decide to sell the received bitcoins, their activity could put significant pressure on the cryptocurrency's price. Therefore, many market participants have decided to reduce the share of BTC in their portfolios in anticipation of the upcoming payouts.

Outflows from bitcoin funds, which account for over 5% of the cryptocurrency's issuance, are putting pressure on Bitcoin. After the halving, the reward for mining each BTC was halved from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. With declining income and depreciating savings, many miners are forced to sell accumulated coins, further creating pressure on Bitcoin's price.

However, there are also positive expectations:

In the next two weeks, a spot ETF on Ethereum may appear. Industry experts are confident that the launch of an Ethereum ETF will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler recently stated that Ethereum ETFs are likely to emerge this summer.
Due to the growth of the crypto industry in the US, candidates in the 2024 US presidential election are being forced to vie for the votes of the crypto community.
Additionally, market participants are anticipating the Federal Reserve's long-awaited move to lower the key interest rate. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, inflation in the US is slowing down.


🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:

➤ 09.07, 15:30 - Speech by Jerome Powell on the economic situation in the USA.

➤ 11.07, 15:30 - Consumer Inflation Index (CPI) in the USA for June.

➤ July 25, 21:00 - US GDP for the 2nd quarter.

➤ 31.07, 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate.


📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:

In June 2024, a correction began in the cryptocurrency market after prolonged growth. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all 5 signals have become profitable, and the built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements.
Total price movement by all signals: +27.03%
Maximum price movement: +13.53%
Average price movement: +5.4%




In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement: