BTC - Breakdown of Market Participants & Structure 2# [UPDATE]
A quick update from our previous discussion - BTC - Breakdown of Market Participants & Structure 1#
* BOTTOM OF TRADING RANGE - It has taken us a little longer than the more bullish set-up discussed previous but we are finally at the bottom of our trading range and testing the Demand Zone (now 2 months later in early May - we considered the possibility we might be here in March).
* MACRO BEAR FLAG - Instead of a 'ripping off the Band-Aid approach' to get here (which would have been a more bullish setup), we have relieved some of the tension with a relief rally to the 200D SMA and set up the Macro Bear Flag we have be following from March and through April and early May. This is now playing out with measured moves shown in purple.
* PARABOLIC TREND LINES - Both the RED and now at present testing the GREEN parabolic trend lines both played in developing the price action over the last few months. The GREEN parabolic trend line if we break will be a win for the bears in my opinion and lock in the potential to find a new cycle bottom.
* FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT - We are also testing the GOLDEN POCKET zone on the fib discussed previously.
* VOLUME PROFILE FIXED RANGE (VPFR) - The horizontal gray bars on the right show the horizontal volume distribution for price across our 30K to 60K trading range. It shows us at what price range volume on the exchange we are looking at is increasing or decreasing - to be determined as price points where participants are actively entering / leaving the market. The POC red line or 'Point of Control' represents the price level over this range with the highest traded volume (in the horizontal plane). The fact the bulls have pushed price below the POC is a win in the short term and indication that the chances price is going to reach the bottom of our trading range has increased.
While the points discussed previously are still valid with respect to where we are currently, the path we have taken (purely using the TA discussed in these posts) is a more macro bearish outlook than if we went here in March in the first instance in my opinion. The work is on the bulls to find support in our current range. However the bears have the current market sentiment tail winds to help push through the current section (it is on the bulls to win this battle for sure).
If the bearish scenario does play out, the next key area for support we will be looking at will be the 200D SMA (small line starting shown in dark BLUE).
Enjoy these posts for educational purposes only.
* BOTTOM OF TRADING RANGE - It has taken us a little longer than the more bullish set-up discussed previous but we are finally at the bottom of our trading range and testing the Demand Zone (now 2 months later in early May - we considered the possibility we might be here in March).
* MACRO BEAR FLAG - Instead of a 'ripping off the Band-Aid approach' to get here (which would have been a more bullish setup), we have relieved some of the tension with a relief rally to the 200D SMA and set up the Macro Bear Flag we have be following from March and through April and early May. This is now playing out with measured moves shown in purple.
* PARABOLIC TREND LINES - Both the RED and now at present testing the GREEN parabolic trend lines both played in developing the price action over the last few months. The GREEN parabolic trend line if we break will be a win for the bears in my opinion and lock in the potential to find a new cycle bottom.
* FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT - We are also testing the GOLDEN POCKET zone on the fib discussed previously.
* VOLUME PROFILE FIXED RANGE (VPFR) - The horizontal gray bars on the right show the horizontal volume distribution for price across our 30K to 60K trading range. It shows us at what price range volume on the exchange we are looking at is increasing or decreasing - to be determined as price points where participants are actively entering / leaving the market. The POC red line or 'Point of Control' represents the price level over this range with the highest traded volume (in the horizontal plane). The fact the bulls have pushed price below the POC is a win in the short term and indication that the chances price is going to reach the bottom of our trading range has increased.
While the points discussed previously are still valid with respect to where we are currently, the path we have taken (purely using the TA discussed in these posts) is a more macro bearish outlook than if we went here in March in the first instance in my opinion. The work is on the bulls to find support in our current range. However the bears have the current market sentiment tail winds to help push through the current section (it is on the bulls to win this battle for sure).
If the bearish scenario does play out, the next key area for support we will be looking at will be the 200D SMA (small line starting shown in dark BLUE).
Enjoy these posts for educational purposes only.
