BTC High Probability Forecast Based on Real Math

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Bitcoin has repeatedly corrected ~mid-20% during the last 12–24 months. Using this empirical drawdown profile, a base-case correction of ~25% from a recent $126,000 high implies a **probable correction low near $94,500–$95,000.

This is a high probability forecast based on real math and stats, not science
fiction. No expanding triangles, Elliott Wave counts, Wolfe and Dragon patterns.
Bitcoin does not trade by the textbook. This is real world TA by a pro trader.

Tactical view: Expect a final flush toward ~$95k, then a reversal/bounce if market structure and liquidity conditions confirm.

Confidence: VERY HIGH —pattern consistency is notable, but crypto remains headline- and liquidity-sensitive. Use disciplined risk controls. 🧠

2) Recent Corrections (Past 12–24 Months)
# High → Low % Drawdown
1 $72,000 → $54,000 25%
2 $108,000 → $76,000 28%
3 $70,000 → $50,000 28%
4 $74,000 → $56,000 24%

Empirical mean drawdown:

(25+28+28+24)÷4 = 26.25%.
We’ll use 25% as the base-case assumption (conservative vs. the 26.25% mean). ✅

Projection for the Current Correction

Reference high: $126,000
Base-case (25%) low:
$126,000 × (1 − 0.25) = $94,500
Empirical-mean (26.25%) low:
$126,000 × (1 − 0.2625) = $92,925

Projected buy-zone: $92.9k – $95k, centered near $95k. 🎯

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let me know your thoughts on the above in the comments section 🔥🏧🚀

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No BTC won't reverse at 100k, because someone told you so on X or TikTok

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pro traders don't use MACD RSI and other useless garbage crossovers EW etc
forget about trading bitcoin by the book not going to work you will blow up your account

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my previous analysis below

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