More Upside Potential for Crude Oil
מעודכן
1. I'm expecting price to retrace until the 50% area.
2. I'm waiting for a reversal candle (hammer / bullish engulf / bullish piercing) at 4H. After that, I'll zoom in to 1H time frame and below to do the wave count for the subwaves and entry long at the best possible price. An alternative way is to simply entry at market price once there is a reversal candle at 4H or wait until it bounce at EMA 21 at 1H. The main signal is the reversal candle at 4H. Then only I'll look at the lower time frame to entry.
3. Stop Loss should be 1 tick below of the most recent low.
4. The dotted arrow lines are the possible alternate price movements. No specific target for the moment.
5. The red box is a strong resistance area. It is also a supply area. Might be wise to take some profits once price reach that area and move the SL for the remaining lot(s) to break even.
Disclaimer: These are just probabilities. Actual price might unfold differently compare to any forecast / analysis. What's most important is to trade and make lots of profits. Getting the right wave count is always secondary. :)
הערה
ALTERNATE COUNT:If this alternate count prevail, it will open up to more alternate counts at Daily time frame and above. We need to see whether price will break below the previous LL at Daily or not.
That's why it's wise to use price action at 4H as the main signal to execute your trades. This is very important so that we don't short (counter trend trades base on bearish count), when we're suppose to long because we'll keep on hitting the SLs for sure.
Moreover, those who are using the continuous chart (CL1!, investing.com and others) might see different perspectives compare to those who are using CLV2018 (monthly chart).
הערה
Let's wait for the price to unfold because concluding our count at higher time frames. The flat count is just one of the possible count that I have in mind right now.
הערה
Invalidation point at 65.76:הערה
It seems price rebounded a bit lower than the 61.8% area and then rallied above the 69.59 swing point high. I believed wave 4 has been concluded as shown below: Yesterday, price stalled at 70.01 which is wave 3 equivalent of 1.618 of wave 1:
Wave 3 might move higher. We don't know where is the top of wave 3 yet. Let's wait for retracement to long again. One thing for sure is, if price reach the red box area, it's better to take some profits and trail the SL for the remaining lots. If price manage to break and close above the red box area, wait for retracement again. If price hold at certain support level and there's bullish reversal candle at 4H, we can consider to add more long positions.
הערה
Price stalled at the red box, as I've mentioned. Bulls must be careful.
הערה
Price is at support area. Invalidation point is at 68.52.הערה
Invalidation point was hit yesterday at 68.52. Therefore, I've revised my count to be as below: The current fall looks like an impulse which is the criteria of wave c. Price seems not able to break the blue box resistance (a support become resistance area).
The red box marked with the green arrow is the potential area for upward reversal to happen. The next invalidation point will be at 65.76 where wave 4 overlap wave 1.
After this, I'm going to share the signals that I saw that should have triggered the bulls to close all their positions or at least almost all of it and trail their SL to certain level for the remaining lot(s).
הערה
Sell signals. 1. Candlestick pattern:
(a) Shooting star at Daily.
(b) Dark cloud cover with confirmation candle (marked as no. 2) at 4H.
2. The red box is a supply area where higher chance the banks are waiting there to sell more.
3. Divergence:
(a) The thick blue line is a bearish slingshot.
(b) The thick red line is a typical bearish divergence that gives further confirmation on the bearish slingshot.
הערה
It seems price reverse exactly at the red box area marked with the green arrow, as I've mentioned today: הערה
I don't have access to any laptop right now so I can't pass any chart here. I use EW + price action + demand supply + momentum indicator(s). Base on my observation at CLV2018, at weekly there is bullish piercing candlestick pattern. At daily, it's long leg doji but at 4H, the count for the last 5 legs for wave c is completed at 67.94 and it bounced at daily trendline too. Plus, the macd histogram at 4H showed bullish divergence, the space between the macd lines started to get narrow at the zero line area, anticipating the bullish hook pattern about to take place.
I'm targeting price to reach 72.13 area (refer to CL1!). If price reach that area but there is bearish divergence at 4H, the bulls must be careful with their position(s).
הערה
I'm anticipating this: Please take note on the invalidation point.
הערה
This should be the right count: הערה
I'm continuing his thread with CLX (Nov) chart:ALTERNATE COUNT:
הערה
"Price is "dancing" in the linear regression channel.
הערה
Price close BELOW the red box at Daily tf. 1. Nevertheless, bullish reversal signals are still intact with price stalled at strong support area (refer to the blue rectangle box).
2. Price also bounce at the EMA21 dynamic support.
3. Although divergence is not a must-have signal for reversal, knowing there is no bearish divergence signal yet at 4H should give us the hint that upside potential is still within grasp.
4. I'm expecting one more downward push and a reversal candle to be visible at 1H or 4H.
5. If price break the 69.70 invalidation point, it doesn't mean price will not rebound. It just means the wave count needs to be revised and it's also a hint that the bearish divergence at Daily tf will come into play soon.
הערה
STRONG SUPPORT & RESISTANCE (S&R)Blue lines = weekly S&R
Red lines = monthly S&R
הערה
If price keeps on falling and break below 68.29 for CLX8, that is a bearish confirmation bias.הערה
Soon, I think the upside potential for Crude Oil will be capped for a while...Let's wait and see.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.