COIN Hits Statistical Extremes — Reversion Probability Rising

COIN QuantSignals V4 Weekly 2026-02-11

ALPHA SCORE: 78 (Quant Synthesis)

CORE THESIS: Extreme oversold conditions (RSI 18.3) combined with a significant Katy AI price target of $163.42 suggest a violent mean-reversion rally toward institutional call walls.

⬢ KATY AI: MULTI-DAY VECTOR

Bias: Bullish | Probability: 65% | Projected Move: +8.86%

Katy AI identifies a massive disconnect between current price ($150.12) and the projected value of $163.42. Despite the bearish MACD, the system is flagging a "Springboard" effect where the downward momentum has exhausted itself.

Tactical Observation: COIN is trading significantly below its Weekly VWAP ($157.51) and 50-day MA ($231.05).

The RSI at 18.3 is at a level that historically precedes a sharp 5-10% bounce. Support at $145.16 is holding firm.

⬢ OPTIONS FLOW INSIGHT

Put/Call Ratio: 0.0 | Unusual Activity: Yes

The options chain is remarkably lopsided with zero put open interest reported against 82,988 calls. Specifically, the $155 Call strike shows a massive 8,227 contract OI cluster.

This suggests institutional players are positioned exclusively for an upside move or "Max Pain" is significantly higher than current levels.

ACTION: BUY CALLS

• INSTRUMENT: $155.0 CALL
• EXPIRY: 2026-02-13
• ENTRY ZONE: $4.60 - $5.00 (PREMIUM PRICE)
• TARGET 1: $6.25 (+25%)
• TARGET 2: $8.00 (+60%+)
• STOP LOSS: $3.60 (-25%)

ALPHA EXPECTATION:

RISK GRADE: MODERATE

• THESIS ERROR: A break below the $145.16 support level on high volume would invalidate the mean-reversion thesis.

• EXIT PROTOCOL: Scale 50% at Target 1 ($6.25); Move Stop to Breakeven. Given the 02/13 expiry, time decay (Theta) is aggressive. If the $155 strike is not tested by 14:00 ET, exit remaining position to preserve capital.

QS V4 ELITE | WEEKLY TREND LOGIC

Confidential Signal | Multi-Day Edge | Not Financial Advice