מדד דאו ג'ונסשורט
DJI Bear Market Path to Lower Low: WXYXZ EW Pattern Repeats
מעודכן
Chart says most all. Expect lower low around 17K in late May or early June.
In 2008 and again in the two zig-zags of 2018, we saw the Elliott complex wave WXYXZ recur.
W is pretty clearly carved out, lol. X1 is nearly completed, or at completion. Short entry for Y.
Y has been a higher low, followed by a lower high at X2, giving the 'hunchbacked M' pattern which is a Bearish butterflly or bat and precedes the final impulse to the bottom.
A strong rally typically ensures; however, this may STILL NOT BE THE BOTTOM!
In 2008 after the WXYXZ pattern completed, a final bottom carved out months later.
Whether this happens again depends on the length and severity of Coronaviral economic impact.
In 2008 and again in the two zig-zags of 2018, we saw the Elliott complex wave WXYXZ recur.
W is pretty clearly carved out, lol. X1 is nearly completed, or at completion. Short entry for Y.
Y has been a higher low, followed by a lower high at X2, giving the 'hunchbacked M' pattern which is a Bearish butterflly or bat and precedes the final impulse to the bottom.
A strong rally typically ensures; however, this may STILL NOT BE THE BOTTOM!
In 2008 after the WXYXZ pattern completed, a final bottom carved out months later.
Whether this happens again depends on the length and severity of Coronaviral economic impact.
הערה
We are here at the 0.50...!עסקה פעילה
Adding SPXS at this Fibo. Ofc it could go to the 0.62 at 25200, shorts getting squeezed now. Prices are high again... irrational extremes, panic to sell, panic to buy back in. Soon panic to sell again IMO.הערה
We are in Phase Two of a Bear Market. This is a nice discussion, mentions 'W' shape recovery, which we've seen so many times:marketwatch.com/story/is-the-dow-launching-a-v-shaped-rebound-stubbornly-elevated-volatility-signals-caution-analysts-say-2020-04-07?mod=mw_quote_news
הערה
C = A now at this price. Full moon last night. Your guess good as mine; I'm 30% short.הערה
QQQ is up a mere 0.21c on 4/9/20. Virtually unchanged; it hit a wall at 200.עסקה פעילה
Intraday on 4/9/20 we had four peaks turn back from the 0.50 Fibo. Hammered...Gann: Failure on fourth rally spells rejection. Let's see... notice QQQ is flat; divergent.
הערה
Yeah we got REJECTION IMO... wow, the Bears are Back!הערה
Double topping at the 0.50 Fibo on 4/17. Unwarranted enthusiasm over unproven antiviral therapies. Gonna sell again soon IMO.הערה
Skinny on Remdesivir; it's not statistically more effective than placebo:marketwatch.com/story/why-an-analyst-bullish-on-gilead-says-antiviral-drug-wont-solve-covid-19-2020-04-17?mod=home-page
עסקה פעילה
Brief update; follow on my most current SPX post pls:Some variation in the actual path of the rally from chart projection, it behaves like a B wave, struggling gains in choppy trade. It's not an impulsive 5-wave, although many authors have tried to print an impulse here; it formed a 3-3-3 WXYXZ double combo wave, topping at the 0.618 Fibo near 2937 on 4/29.
Expect real volatility to return soon; NB: UVXY futures are persistently ^^^ and trades above $40, VIX holds above $30. Another spike incoming IMO.
הערה
Bought 3k shares of SPXS at $10 with index at 2932, within 5 pips of the Fibo. By some measures 2934 is the 0.618 retracement from 23 March, we have arrived IMO.
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