#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 7.31-8.05

מעודכן

Last Week : We continued our distribution above 4570 which is our bigger time frame Resistance area. We have been going sideways building up supply here with a few attempts to continue towards upper part of HTF Resistance at 4666 but were met with selling. Key Support and Key Resistance for the week provided great trades up and down the range. Thursday we trapped buyers over 4615-4603 Resistance which gave us a look above and fail, market flushed but wasn't just yet ready to break 4570-62 and who ever got too short Thursday at the lows provided us with buying on Friday to bring us back towards our trapped supply area or start at Key Resistance.

This Week : We have been building Supply in this 4570-4615 range for almost 2 weeks with a failure to get current Key Resistance. We have stops lined up below us and trapped buyers above, this tells us if the market cannot get over 4614 area, hold and then take out 4628-23 then we shouldn't be looking for continuation higher for now.
Previous Day and T2 highs are right above us with trapped time and volume over 4615.

If market cant get over 4615 and accept then we would look for rotation lower as the longs who are buying in this range are not getting the upside and could start selling out. If we start triggering lower stops that can bring more selling. If current Cost basis and Swing Stops below 4562 get taken then we could see a move towards the stops at 4548.75-43 with a look under around 4637 and possibly test our next Key Support at 4532.50-24.
Our next cost basis would be just under that and we could see buying front running that area on first attempts unless we will have size selling that could break it and continue then we could stay around that lower range this week that is IF we break of course.

For the market to continue higher we would need to either see buying to take us over 4615 right away and hold above trapped last weeks shorts under for support or get under 4603, build a base above 4590 and then take out 4603-10 again, after that I think we could target next ranges Resistances and stops.

Levels to Watch :

Current Support : 4603-4598.75
If Broken Could Target 4589.50-84.75 // 4570-62.50
If Broken Could Target 4551.25-48.75-43.75
Next Key Support 4532.50-24.25 Possible to see buyers around 4537 on first tests

Current Key Resistance 4614.50-9.75
IF broken and hold above Could Target 4623-28
Next Key Resistance 4646.25-4336.50

הערה

Globex opened and drove over 4614.50 but failed to stay above which gave a trade back towards Current Support at 4603-98.75, we took out the stops under it but failed to hold under and came back over it. Going into today we still have Current Support and Current Resistance as our areas to watch, if we fail to get under 4603-98 again and no new strong buying comes in to take us over 28-23 then we could have a smaller range day in this 4600-4625 area, push over 4614.50 could bring a test of 23-28 which would be area to watch for any continuation higher.

הערה

Back under 4610-08 could bring another test of Current Support if we fail here

הערה

Spent the day back and forth between Key Resistance and Current Support, as mentioned if we don't see strong buying to keep us over 4615 and we cant break 4603-98 then we might spend the day in smaller range, we did break 4603-98 towards the end of the day but that again was short lived and gave a pop back over Key Resistance. Going into tonight/tomorrow question is did we trap enough shorts under 4615-10 to give us Support here over it now to see a test of 4628-23 and maybe 36? Can we stay above 4615 or will we come back in again? Our T2 and and Previous Day ranges will be right under us and right at the area we need to take out to see continuation lower, so far Supports are holding but buyers are not really getting the upside. Lets see what we do tonight if market can give us any more information if we are ready to move or will continue grinding here. Was a tricky day to trade but Resistance gave two nice flushes into Support for 10-15 points and that was about until the end of day pop.

הערה

Breaking 4603-4598 Support area with Supply above, if we can stay under we will look for continuation towards our lower stops, we would need to hold under 4590-85 and could see continuation towards 4570-62 and under

הערה

IF Things really get going, dont forget next cost basis if we break 4570-62 is under 4532.50-4524.25

הערה

Failed to tag 89-85 on this first break and Flush, now need to see if we get more selling closer to or at the open to take us under, that would be an area we want to hold under to see continuation today. For longs today we would want to see some base built under 4603 to get back over or a hold of 89-85 area.

הערה

We wanted to see break and go of 4603-4598 are or at least tag/break 89-85 and hold under 4600 to continue lower, for now we just took out Support and flushed the stops under Previous Day low. We may get more smaller range chop/consolidation here with a possible move towards 89-85 Stops later today if we get ready, if we run out of supply and this buying is strong then we would want to see us get over 4615 and stick to have a chance at higher targets

הערה

Built up a lot of supply here under 4603-98 area but still failing to tag 89-85 and take the lower stops. So far we have built a base here and even if it seems like it should go down, if we get over 4603 we could see a move back to Key Resistance and maybe 4623, Unless we can hold under BUT only if it gets over 4603-98 and looks strong to continue if not we still can head for 89-90

הערה

If by or after 2pm we can't take out current lower stops then we are probably done for the day, I wouldn't be looking for longs unless as we are holding under Supply area. T2 low still has buyers and if we cant take 89-85 stops we cant continue. If we hold today but fail to accept over 4603 I would look for continuation lower tonight or tomorrow

הערה

Globex failed again over 4615 which was our Key Resistance for any continuation, we were finally able to break the Support at 4603-4598 and put in Time and Volume under using T2 low buying for Support which prevented us from testing 4589-85 but mentioned that the way we were looking is we could see continuation lower Tonight or tomorrow, I wasn't hoping for a gap down but this is what we got. Market opened inside the cost basis under 89-85 and we drove straight back to it, now we have supply trapped over 89-85 and we are inside this cost basis. Holding under 89-85 will mean weakness which could give us a move towards 70-62 and IF we break this cost basis and accept below we could target lower stops at 51-43, not sure how much supply we can see come out here but if we do have legs behind this we will watch lower stop areas for continuation, Next Key Support is 4532-25 and cost basis under it. To see market go higher from here we would need to get back over 90-85 and see hold pushes towards 95-98-4603, right now we have Supply above and could continue lower

הערה

Not a time to be too short biased in Globex as that flush took out supply into the cost basis but not tag or break of 70-62 and now we could spend time over 4585 distributing. But if we fail to get back over 4603-4598 by tomorrow and at some point break this 4589-85 again then we can try to target 70-62 again, for now it flushed and back over it, for continued weakness it needed to stay under

הערה

Globex made a nice move that we were looking for 90-85 broke again we flushed to 70-62 Key Support and once that broke we headed for lower stops at 51-43 area, we tagged the area but not enough selling to continue. Going into today we have NFP so we will have to see how things shake up with that but for any continuation lower we need to get back under 4570-62, we took the swing stops there but this move was in globex so whatever candy fell out was picked up, we need to be under that and take out 51-43 area stops to see lower. Our Current Resistance going into today is 4590-85 IF we get over that and look strong don't be surprised if market goes for higher stops again as we are still in this 4570-4615 range until its broken. There is lots of volume today already in Globex plus NFP coming, day to be careful and not force a bias but watch what happens level to level. But as long as we are holding under 4590-85 we could see another test of lower levels and Stops later, cant imagine having small range balance day with NFP but never know.

הערה

Holding below T2 range and 70 area can cause Margin call selling which could give us the volume we need to go for lower stops, I would be careful with longs if we can hold above this area. Under 70-62 we could see stops at 51-43

הערה

Stops at 51-43 taken. Now market could consolidate in this 4537-4560 area today, we may get continuation to next target we may not as mentioned earlier 32.50-25 next Key Support and we can see buying on first moves towards it, will we consolidate and continue later today? or will we consolidate and continue tomorrow? we will have to wait and see but we took out Swing stops holding under 70-62 will be weakness going forward, we should see another attempt at todays low at some point to may drive it lower but we will have to be careful to see if we actually get follow through or just flush and hold

הערה

Big Key to trading current market is to exit at targets and not to get greedy until it shows more.

הערה

This morning we have Supply and broke into next cost basis under Key Support at 4532-24 Possible continuation towards 4508-02 and if that breaks can watch for 4490-80s IF we hold above 4508 and get back over 4524-32 then can look for longs, other than that we could see more margin call selling UNLESS we can just hold and balance here which would mean covering is strong enough here to absorb the selling. Next cost basis is under our next Key Support at 4487-4479 we could test it if we get enough pressure

הערה

Are the buyers below ready for supply? lets see if we can crack this and head for lower targets

הערה

No break of 4508-02 yet, we can spend time consolidating over it and trade in some balance. Will be watching if we will get a break and continuation under it still today or not, important areas to watch going forward are 4524-32 if price gets back to that or holding under that can give another test of 08-02 and if we can build up and break it then we could see continuation lower. If covering is strong enough we could trade in balance around this cost basis as well.

הערה

Looks like cost basis under 4532-25 is holding today, if that will be the case by the end of day then very possible to see a pull back tomorrow/Sunday towards 4550-4660 areas as now our trapped supply is over 4570-62 that is now our Key Resistance going forward. If we hold this 4525-4508 area then Support is holding for now and if selling slows down could give pull back towards the supply before size sellers engage again. Lets what we get going forward, still a chance to break today and try at 08-02 again lets see how we end the day.

הערה

Getting a bounce from this Support area maybe we get a pull back to 40s-50s sooner than expected if that will be the case then tomorrow on NFP we might see more selling

הערה

At this point only interested to see how we close today, 32-24 provided good sells in the morning, then 24-32 gave a pop over once sellers were done and we cleared it. Not expecting much else because there is supply over 40 unless larger buyers or sellers come in todays opportunities might be done. Lets see how we close to see what to expect tonight

הערה

What can we expect in Globex and data tomorrow? Well so far this weeks prep worked out nicely and we have hit this lower Cost Basis target from 4600 and 4570-62 break. Today we fully tested this cost basis, popped back over support once sellers were done but failed to hold. So far its somewhat an indecision area but holding under 4548-43 means Weakness and if we break this 32-24 again then we could see a move down for the stops at todays low at 4508-02 and next targets around 90s. IF we head lower we have next possible Support area at 4487-79 BUT I would be careful because if we have enough volume coming out we can see a move under it to test the end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 which so happens to be the top of our next Cost Basis a look inside it is also possible. IF we do hold this cost basis we would want to be able to hold over 4532 and continue/take out 4548-43 and hold above to be able to think about targeting higher Supply area. This is a big area with built up supply, will monitor it at the Globex open today in case it wants to move right away or will need to wait and see what it decides to do. It is NFP Friday so things things might shake up in a different way.

הערה

Taking out 32.50 can bring a test of 48-43 where we would watch for continuation or rejection. No downside unless get back under 25

הערה

Today we tested the cost basis under 4532-25 and it held despite all the selling. Over 32.50 means market is clean and can rotate higher. IF we take out Todays high we will trigger short stops which will create buying, since its globex we wont need much volume to do that, IF we can do that and take out 48-43 we can look for distribution over that area but under 4570-62 that is our key supply area, if this will happen then tomorrow after NFP there is a possibility to go look for the bid which means it can get bloody, next cost basis below us is under 4480-65 down to 4450-35. This is one of the scenarios if we build up more supply and cant get back over 4570-62. Right now need to wait for the long from 32-24 to play out into the globex.

הערה

If we do fail to take Previous day high and fail again over 32 then we could watch if we will go under 25 instead. Thats about it for globex unless we just chop in some range until NFP

הערה

Globex made a run for Previous Day high towards 4548-43 but failed to get over it which brought us back into 32-25 Key Support area with a dip inside that Cost Basis under it. NFP is coming up and things are unpredictable what we will do but what we know is we have stops at 4508-02 which we are in range of taking out, we have buyers under 4590-80 If 4500-4480 doesnt hold we could get continuation towards untested Spike Base at 4465-60 and maybe even under as our next bigger cost Basis is under that. On the other hand IF we flush out the stops below but fail to continue and instead run out of supply, market can rotate higher back towards our Main Supply area which is over 4562-70, If that happens then could at least see 4550s area. Lets see what we get, might need time for data to come in and then figure out if its break and continue, break/hold reverse or maybe we go higher first and then see what holds or not. So far on bigger time frames things are pointing lower, we have buyers to be filled in 4508-4487 area can we fill them today and have more supply or that will be it?

הערה

No big reaction from NFP, will see what we get at RTH open if we have more selling that will come in or if we will hold the support and have a day in the range above, These will be areas to watch 48-43 Current Resistance 70-62 Key Resistance. 25-19 Current Support Area needed to break for a possible move towards 08-02

הערה

Failure at 48-43 Resistance, watch lower targets for continuation if we take out this 32-24 again

הערה

Comment:
IF we still have enough short covering to absorb all the selling we could just balance here and have a small range day above this Support and below 50s unless we can break and the support and continue under Support or over Resistance we might be stuck here. If thats that will be the case for the day then that will give us information for next week

הערה

Don't forget about lower target, we found supply over 50, lets see if we can get under and head for next Support

הערה

Under 4500 we can see margin calls into end of day, careful if trying to buy this thing could go down

הערה

4508-02 target hit, getting close to end of day careful looking for continuation, we may get some but we may hold. May see more Sunday/Monday

HollowMn

כתב ויתור

המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.