Here is a look at my weekly level. Price is already gapping higher on NVDA news following the long weekend. Very euphoric price action so technicals are less reliable so be mindful that move can get over done in either direction in this scenario.
SUMMARY • ES posted a 0.50% gain last week after trading in a range of 107 points. • ES sold off early in the week but recovered to close the week at the Dec 13th high again. • A move above the Dec 13th high put the HTF 618 Fib RT (4300) level in play • Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY & XLC. Weakest was XLU, XLP, XLV & XLB • Despite the strong rally only the XLK, XLY & XLC closed the week green. • Currently rally very concentrated in the MEGA cap tech stocks. NVDA current market leader. • Only 40% of stock are above their 200 SMAs. • A debt ceiling deal has been made but must be voted on. • European markets and Japan are currently making new highs. • Earnings this week include reports from AI, CRWD, LULU, AVGO, M, OKTA, BILI, DG • Market already pricing in rate cuts. • Biggest econ data this week is Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Market closed Tuesday US CB consumer confidence & Fed’s Barkin Speaks Wednesday Can GDP, US JOLTS, Fed’s Collins, Bowman, Harker & Jefferson speak Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Manufacturing PMI, US Construction Spending, EIA Crude & Fed’s Harker speaks Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment rate
ES continues to hold the 4200 level EMAs & SMAs are stacked Bbreak above Dec 13th high Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors Potentially positive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls European markets are making new highs Debt ceiling resolution has been made in principle Rate pause/cut hopes Potential panic buying & Short covering on break of Dec 13th high ES trading in a giant ascending triangle
BEARISH NOTES
Stoch 5.1 is Overbought Potential rejection at the Feb 2nd high Bullish momentum hinges on small group of MEGA cap stocks esp. NVDA Potential negative reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls Service & wage inflation is persistent Potential shock event (more bank failures) Debt ceiling agreement fails to pass congress Fed Heads start talking rate hikes again Potential spike in yields & USD Only 40% of stock are above their 200 SMAs
הערה
ES_F Dec 13th high continues to be key resistance. Below it I will be looking for a move back down to the bottom of the green box. Above it look for a move to the bottom of the red box. It would be very bullish if price recovers and breaks the Dec 13th high.
הערה
ES_F So price recovered the Dec 13th high and making a very strong move. The very bullish scenario is playing out. First target to the upside is the bottom of the red box.
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