ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Oct31-Nov4)
The S&P closed the week up 3.91% after trading in a 185 pts range. During a highly volatile week price started the week pushing through the Oct 5th pivot to the 50% Fib RT where it reversed hard and fell 137 pts to retest the 21 ema only to reverse once again on Friday and close near the highs of the week above 3900. The massive bullish reversal can be attributed to rumours that the Fed will add the word ‘Pivot’ to their statement during the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Bull/Bear line this week = 3900.
• S&P coming off massive intra week bullish reversal
• Market suspects Fed pivot
• FOMC rate decision and statement on Wednesday
• Earnings for many small/mid cap companies this week
• S&P above June 17th low & 9/21/55 emas
• Key level this week = 3900
• Inverse H&S has been broken
• Test of downward trendline possible (4100)
• Bullish period for stocks has begun
• Markets historically strong following Mid Term elections
• VIX has dropped to 25
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Eurozone CPI & US Chicago PMI
Tuesday US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS
Wednesday FOMC Statement & Rate Decision, US EIA Crude
Thursday BoE Rate Decision, US International Trade & US Initial Jobless Claims + Factory Orders
Friday US Unemployment Rate & US Non-Farm Payrolls
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday AWK, CAR, AFL, XPO, LEG, PSMT, SYK
Tuesday ABMD, BP, CIGI, ETN, LLY, KKR, MPC, PFE, NEM, PBI, SOFI, UBER, AMD, ABNB, AYX, CZR, CHK, CLX, DVN, EIX, EA, MDLZ, MCK, WU
Wednesday BIP, GOOS, CVE, CVS, EMR, EL, RACE, EXPI, HUM, NCLH, SABR, UAA, YUM, ZBH, ACAD, CDAY, EBAY, ETSY, FSLY, FSR, FTNT, MRO, MET, MGM, NTR, QCOM, ROKU, SU, RUN, TNDM, ZG
Thursday ADT, BCE, CNQ, CI, COP, CROX, DDOG, NTLA, K, MAR, MRNA, PZZA, BTU, PTON, RCL, SHAK, REGN, QSR, TNK, TEVA, W, ZTS, AMGN, TEAM, BIGC, SQ, BE, CVNA, NET, COIN, DASH, DBX, EXAS, EXPE, ILMN, KTOS, MNST, MCHP, PYPL, PGNY, SBUX, SWKS, TWLO, SPCE, YELP
Friday BEP, D, DKNG, ENB, HSY, MGA, TU, WPC
BULLISH NOTES
Above 9/21/55 emas
Above June 17th low
Coming off massive bullish reversal on Friday
Historically bullish period of the year
Historically bullish period following Mid Terms
Inverse H&S has been broken
Potential drop in yields
Potential drop in USD
BEARISH NOTES
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Continued strength in USD
Potential negative reaction to FOMC
Potential shock event
Potential rise in bond yields
Remain in long term downtrend
• S&P coming off massive intra week bullish reversal
• Market suspects Fed pivot
• FOMC rate decision and statement on Wednesday
• Earnings for many small/mid cap companies this week
• S&P above June 17th low & 9/21/55 emas
• Key level this week = 3900
• Inverse H&S has been broken
• Test of downward trendline possible (4100)
• Bullish period for stocks has begun
• Markets historically strong following Mid Term elections
• VIX has dropped to 25
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Eurozone CPI & US Chicago PMI
Tuesday US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS
Wednesday FOMC Statement & Rate Decision, US EIA Crude
Thursday BoE Rate Decision, US International Trade & US Initial Jobless Claims + Factory Orders
Friday US Unemployment Rate & US Non-Farm Payrolls
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday AWK, CAR, AFL, XPO, LEG, PSMT, SYK
Tuesday ABMD, BP, CIGI, ETN, LLY, KKR, MPC, PFE, NEM, PBI, SOFI, UBER, AMD, ABNB, AYX, CZR, CHK, CLX, DVN, EIX, EA, MDLZ, MCK, WU
Wednesday BIP, GOOS, CVE, CVS, EMR, EL, RACE, EXPI, HUM, NCLH, SABR, UAA, YUM, ZBH, ACAD, CDAY, EBAY, ETSY, FSLY, FSR, FTNT, MRO, MET, MGM, NTR, QCOM, ROKU, SU, RUN, TNDM, ZG
Thursday ADT, BCE, CNQ, CI, COP, CROX, DDOG, NTLA, K, MAR, MRNA, PZZA, BTU, PTON, RCL, SHAK, REGN, QSR, TNK, TEVA, W, ZTS, AMGN, TEAM, BIGC, SQ, BE, CVNA, NET, COIN, DASH, DBX, EXAS, EXPE, ILMN, KTOS, MNST, MCHP, PYPL, PGNY, SBUX, SWKS, TWLO, SPCE, YELP
Friday BEP, D, DKNG, ENB, HSY, MGA, TU, WPC
BULLISH NOTES
Above 9/21/55 emas
Above June 17th low
Coming off massive bullish reversal on Friday
Historically bullish period of the year
Historically bullish period following Mid Terms
Inverse H&S has been broken
Potential drop in yields
Potential drop in USD
BEARISH NOTES
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Continued strength in USD
Potential negative reaction to FOMC
Potential shock event
Potential rise in bond yields
Remain in long term downtrend
הערה:
Here is a look at the break of the inverse H&S I mentioned in the post. S&P continues to outperform the Nasdaq.
הערה:
Really mild pull back yesterday. Price as pushed into Friday's high overnight. 4000 appears to be a magnet for price right now. First support would be the ascending trendline below.
