Market Trending Up, but what about longer trends?
מעודכן
Hey everyone! Sorry for being away for a bit, while we did follow my red graph down and I had shorted into some of that, I did not feel comfortable following it back up and went over to trade several 6E contracts instead. Not sure the income difference was much, but it felt like a safer trade following long term valuation of the Euro than hoping stocks regain levels never until the pandemic.
Full disclosure, I closed out my 6E contracts towards the end of Tuesday, and am sitting in NO current position right now, so it is easy for me to talk about the market with no skin in the game.
That being said, let's dive into things. Here are the trends as we are in the middle of today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESZ Contract)
30m - 4524 Uptrend (11/16/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4391 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4424 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4260 Uptrend (11/1/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4319 Uptrend (11/2/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4244 Downtrend (10/16/2023) Lower Low
On a short term and medium-term basis, things are very much trending upward. Based on the short sentiment in the market, I think we won't push too much higher, and could even run back down to around 4420ish as I think lots of people went short going into Tuesday's CPI data and are going to be holding their positions to try and minimalize their losses if they didn't practice good risk management.
I go into a concern on this upward movement in the video, but ultimately I am concerned that we had our first lower low downtrend EVER on a Weekly analysis for trends. I'm not saying that it will take us lower, I am saying it has never happened before. Every downtrend signal we ever had prior has always been a higher low downtrend. As long as we stay above 4462 when the last uptrend signaled (week of June 6, 2023) we are above and looking to signal a higher high uptrend, but anything below that to me shows we could be headed into a sideways or even long term downtrend market for the first time ever. Or... like I said it has never happened so maybe it means nothing, as there is no historical data to look at.
My current outlook is;
I just plan to sit and watch for potentially the rest of this week and maybe decide Monday on a position, unless I take a short term trade for just over Friday but will likely close out before the weekend. I may even continue to look for other areas of the market to invest in.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
Full disclosure, I closed out my 6E contracts towards the end of Tuesday, and am sitting in NO current position right now, so it is easy for me to talk about the market with no skin in the game.
That being said, let's dive into things. Here are the trends as we are in the middle of today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESZ Contract)
30m - 4524 Uptrend (11/16/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4391 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4424 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4260 Uptrend (11/1/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4319 Uptrend (11/2/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4244 Downtrend (10/16/2023) Lower Low
On a short term and medium-term basis, things are very much trending upward. Based on the short sentiment in the market, I think we won't push too much higher, and could even run back down to around 4420ish as I think lots of people went short going into Tuesday's CPI data and are going to be holding their positions to try and minimalize their losses if they didn't practice good risk management.
I go into a concern on this upward movement in the video, but ultimately I am concerned that we had our first lower low downtrend EVER on a Weekly analysis for trends. I'm not saying that it will take us lower, I am saying it has never happened before. Every downtrend signal we ever had prior has always been a higher low downtrend. As long as we stay above 4462 when the last uptrend signaled (week of June 6, 2023) we are above and looking to signal a higher high uptrend, but anything below that to me shows we could be headed into a sideways or even long term downtrend market for the first time ever. Or... like I said it has never happened so maybe it means nothing, as there is no historical data to look at.
My current outlook is;
I just plan to sit and watch for potentially the rest of this week and maybe decide Monday on a position, unless I take a short term trade for just over Friday but will likely close out before the weekend. I may even continue to look for other areas of the market to invest in.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
הערה
In looking over all the market areas... I will likely just go long with the masses on an oil contract, especially given how many have already dived into a long position back when it was in the higher 70s, to at least ride from the $73 area to the $78-$80 area. Not 100% ruling out doing the ES also, just don't feel comfortable in it at the moment.
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