Trends Mixed; Overall Neutral Short Term on Markets

29 במאי

So, as stated in the video, the shorter term timeframes of 30m/1hr/2hr have opened up to lower movements, while the 3hr/4hr/6hr have been violated and would call for a movement back up, but haven't shown that potential movement yet.

We are still in a short term Bullish Zone in accordance with my moving momentum algorithm, but we are very close to hitting below that Zero Line into Bearish territory, especially if we continue to stay low like this. What I may look for is a movement into the Bearish zone, a move upward, and if that movement upward doesn't bounce us back into a bullish zone I may short the market, but we shall see.

Overall long term, I'm curious if the Daily can push below and settle under 5160ish for a Lower Low. It would be the first time in quite some time that we had a lower low on the Daily trend, putting us at risk of getting a lower high Daily rebound that will call for markets to be on a decline.

Overall, The Mag 7, especially NVidia, still continue to mostly carry the market with the bulk of the Dow in neutral territory at best, and the Nasdaq outside of the Mag 7 also neutral. I continue to be concerned about this rally being too narrow and traders continuing to use Mag 7 stocks as safety stashes, and what will happen if they choose to take that safety money out to stash it somewhere else.

Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5319 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low
1Hr - 5313 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 5309 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 5286 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low
4Hr - 5286 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low
6Hr - 5287 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5188 Uptrend (5/6/2024) Higher High
Daily - 5330 Uptrend (5/15/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High

Economic Calendar;
GDP Thursday
PCE Friday

Earnings to watch;
Salesforce AMC today
Costco earnings are tomorrow

My sentiment on the market is as follows;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish / Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral / Bullish
Long Term - Bullish

Basically, I don't see major risks in the long-term just yet, but the short term is a bag of mixed reactions. Currently in a place I feel we may need to look elsewhere. If you were looking for me to give you a warm and fuzzy on where to trade the ES Futures, I just can't give that today.

Safe trading and remember your risk management.

29 במאי

הערה

Market is down... Mag 7 (mostly NVidia last I checked) is up! 6 months of this, and not an immediate end of safety net stocks like never before. So bizarre.

29 במאי

הערה

S&P down 1%, Nasdaq down 1%, Dow Jones down almost 2%, gold down .75%, basically everything went down...
Mag 7... down 0.08%............

30 במאי

הערה

GDP came in low, and even lower than expected.
Corporate profits came in negative
Labor Market is typical
PCE Prices (Not PCE itself) is higher than it was, but slightly lower than expected, which I find interesting.
Overall though, what narrative matters? Is bad news, actually bad? We've run on bad news is good news and good news is good news, so who knows. The slowing of the economy would push a narrative that we can cut rates this year, but on the same note, it is a slowing economy which historically is bad for tech stocks, and investors are hiding their cash in mega tech stocks... so do we see a retraction from those Mag 7 stocks to start widen out the market?
Will be interested in PCE tomorrow... initially it looks like it might just come in lower than expected, which still baffles me on the headline number at least because of the increase energy prices.

30 במאי

הערה

In terms of trends... we really should have a bit of a potential bounce up, and then if that momentum fades and we fall again, we should head south for the summer months at least, which still does fall in line with the Sell in May, Walk Away mentality already discussed.

30 במאי

הערה

So far... Mega tech stocks are dropping more than the overall market. I would really like to see a retraction from this behavior and a broadening out in market investment if I want to feel comfortable with the market driving higher

31 במאי

הערה

No surprises on PCE. That slightly lower month over month on Core, but that was expected. Year over year holding steady. Personal spending slightly lower but not by much. Overall, economy seems to be slowing slightly, and inflation seems to be cooling. Headline PCE holds steady as expected, which I still find surprising with the rise in energy prices, though it might be why the core came in lower but the headline did not. I'm not positioned for anything, all cash in all sectors.

31 במאי

הערה

Went Long into the data as we hit positive territory on the day. Not sure exactly the reason for the selling in the last couple days knowing that PCE is basically a known number at this point and it came in as expected. If we fall today, back below zero, I'll take small profit at a stop loss and see where we land. Not sure I want to short into the market here, as we are in a bullish stance overall.

My other concern is while overall the trend is upward and I want to catch that, we ARE in a short-term bearish zone below the zero line on my Momentum algorithm.

If Natural Gas falls, which has had my eye more than any other today, it is going to into a correction bearish zone, so I may be looking for a pop on that to short into as my primary income in the next week or so.

31 במאי

הערה

Just thinking out loud here... I suppose we could see a sideways or even down day today, as people uninvest from the safety overbought tech stocks and retrieve money in cash, then invest in a broader market rally that would make this rally much healthier. So, a neutral or down day, with Mag 7 stocks fueling the losses much more than any other area... perhaps the DOW up on the day with the Nasdaq down and the S&P slightly down or sideways

31 במאי

הערה

Took a $200 profit at the drop back down. Likely to sit out of the ES today, and focus on other markets. Potentially may look for a Long into next week if I see a weakening in the downward pressure.

31 במאי

הערה

To note, so far, the theory is what is occurring. Dow Jones is up, though just barely. Nasdaq is down heavily at over 1%, but the Mag 7 is leading the decline at over a 1.5% decline. S&P is the middle ground of both.