ES1!

8 בדצמ׳ 2024

Next 12M price action prediction:

1. santa clause run up into year end into HTF resistance
2. sell of in jan we lose 50DMA and support in green line, but then find support on 200DMAQ and support in red + green line.
3. we run up intil end of may and then lose 200DMA to later on drop 20% down to 200WMA and HTF Support.
4. We then run it up again in 2025 2H and 2026

30 בדצמ׳ 2024

הערה

5. Oh and this will in part be fueled by techincal tops according to the chart here. but also by trade wars/threat of trade wars, us lowering interest rates due to those trade wars - as well as BOJ raising one more time. therefore moving capital away from US, in part due to currency depreciation.

9 במרץ 2025

עסקה פעילה

green trendline wasnt perfectly alligned with 200DMA so we dropped a bit down below it but landed on the 5700 line in red and 200DMA as expected.

Volume is very high into this support so i expect this to hold and give a bounce. But now much depends on the tariffs so lets see, if all is good on that front then 6600 is on the table. otherwise if shit hits the fan we go to 5000.

13 במרץ 2025

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

lets see if we can reclaim the 200DMA and red trendline - otherwise we are going to according to red line to about 5000. Seems quite likely now and would be a nice place to buuy





Then for nasdaq - buying 16400 old ATH, log 1m 15year channel and 200WMA seems like a very good spot to add.

7 באפר׳ 2025

הערה

Nasdaq (log scale)
Okey this went as expected but alot quicker than expected. Havent quite touched the 200WMA. If this doenst hold then all bets are off and i have no clue where we will end up because then the trade war is so bad that it will determine eveyrthing else.

if we simply overshoot a bit then good place to buy woild be here:





ES1:

we hit our buy target as well, same thing here as with the Nasdaq. If shit really hits the fan then 4238 is the place i would place buy orders.

21 באפר׳ 2025

הערה

We did infact bounce as predicted 5-6 months ago. If we get good news on the trade war front this will most likely be a v-reversal, but if uncertanty lingers then we should expect a retest or these levels/trendlines.


same with Nasdaq here.


Note -- these up-arrows/drawings are best case scenario where the trade war stops. if shit contunies, and we get a recession ontop of the trade war, then we will most likely loose this and the 200WMA.

20 באוק׳ 2025

הערה

All going as planned, all though a bit quicker than expected.


spx log 1Month scale above ^

looking to see a rally into year end, hopefully its a very agressive rally into both long term and short term trendline. target around 7.7k. Same or very similar with nasdaq below:


looking for aggressive rally into long term trendline to mark the top, target around 30k.

if we get it into year end that would be great, and that its very aggressive so its a blow of top. If its slow and steady then i wont feel as confident selling but will do anyway. lets see what happens in the Q4-Q1, the AI trade may continue for a few more quarters/years so its super hard to tell when to sell or even if you should, but ill trade according to the charts because when/if/how an AI bubble will burts i have no clue about. but good to take profit at some points and log charts are usually good for that, thats usually when its a bit or very extended.

22 באוק׳ 2025

הערה

and ofcourse, if we dont get that, ill be buying at 22-23k nasdaq and spx 6.1-6.2k.