Equities starting correction, how low?
מעודכן
At least to test 200 DMA IMO. Expect technical bounce to rejection under lower channel TL from OverSold.
Short the rally, due diligence; GLTA!
Short the rally, due diligence; GLTA!
הערה
Refer to John J Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, Fig 4-10a.cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/unsorted2/Stock books 029/John J Murphy - Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets.pdf
(Free PDF; NB; scroll down to p.2)
הערה
Made beer money flipping calls. Played AM gapfill and took lunch money home. There is a gap above to fill IMOעסקה פעילה
Buying SPXSהערה
Look how weak RTY, no market breadth, heading lower soon IMOעסקה פעילה
Opening bear spreads in IWM, QQQעסקה פעילה
In IWM Oct 217.5P vs weekly 212.5 net $5 debit, QQQ 367.7 vs 357.5 net $6.3 debit, ten each.הערה
LOL always feels personal when it bulls right after you enter a short! Hanging onעסקה פעילה
Added five more spreads each. Sucker rally IMO. fade it...הערה
So Monday NQ sold of 500, closed off the lows and we got 100 pips higher out of it, it's at the .62 fibo here...Lower again soon IMO, ofc it can creep higher, this is why I write Bear Spreads, the short legs pay for errors!
הערה
So you get a better idea of risk management, I am now short 3k of weekly puts expiring Friday. If it bulls a bit more, i don't sweat too hard, I know these weeklies will pay for it. When to cover? When the drawdown exceeds your short credit.
הערה
When should you short? Well entry is everything! Today we had a spike on open, played Fade the Gap. Then it started looking bearish so opened a few bear spreads. OFC immediately the bulls rallied again and we got a retracement to near the .62 Fibo intraday. So I short the retracement, short the rallies. Always hedge these bets, buying near-term dailies is a great way to wipe out your account! GLTA!הערה
People asking should I sell longs now? What if it gets higher, I will miss out!This is not a bull move, it's a bear rally, look how choppy it is, see-sawing, not a smooth powercurve like we saw in July and August. It's gonna be a brief pause before lower IMO
עסקה פעילה
Closed the bear spreads on second gapfill intraday, re-entry EOD. often bulls then from short covering. Holding SPXSעסקה פעילה
Selling SPY VCS Oct 28 446/460 net credit $3.3 in six spreadsהערה
Back in the bear spreads on the small lift EOD. It's not bullish, make no mistake! This is a retracement rally, not a new bull wave. Trend is Down.
הערה
Gosh look how bearish EOD, this is not a bull market IMOהערה
Damned close to gapfill 439 > 441, 2 pips shy, might see it after Powell; this rally almost exhausted IMO, see idea I posted below, credit to DarkPoolTrading, tyvm!הערה
Another idea from BullishTraders, decidedly NOT feeling bullish, reposted below, kudos to youdos!הערה
Shorted into the FOMC rally, have taken on an oversized position.. watching like hawk. Short 35 SPY 446 calls, long 35 QQQ 370, IWM 222, DIA 343 puts, all October strikes, bear spreads short legs in the weeklies. My largest position to date and maybe a big mistake.
Pulled 6k out of short legs todady and rolled all.
הערה
Gotta love how the Fed says they might jack up rates sooner next year, and the MOMO buys it up. Holding short.העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני
Stopped out, damned thing up over 100 pips in 2 days fgs. Watch & wait.
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