SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022

SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022

We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.44%, falling from 4.48% of the last week.
At the same time, its currently place on the 90th percentile based on the ATR calculations.

With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of:
In case of a Bullish movement : 2.54%
In case of a Bearish movement : 2.7%


With the current volatility point, we have a 24.3% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel:
TOP : 3751
BOT : 3430


At the same time, there is currently a 38% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3730
And there is a 66% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3500

Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -68% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)