SP500MF-UPSIDE CORRECTIVE MOVE OVER !
WEEKLY (W1)
This weekly price action is showing a recovery attempt which failed to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band on a weekly closing basis !
In addition the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 4'580.75 has been filled (high being 4'586) and the weekly closing was @ 4'492.50 which is exactly on
the razor's hedge (double top trigger level !!!)
Therefore, this recent upside corrective move should be seen as OVER !
Likely to see at least a retest of the former low, below the 4'200 (top of the weekly clouds support zone) during the upcoming session (s)
Just as a gentle reminder :
4'186.50 is ONLY THE 23.6 % FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF THE 2'174-4'808.25 RALLY...
meaning that there is plenty of space to the downside...
1) the 38.2% Fib being @ 3'802 (important as it is the bottom of the weekly clouds !)
2) the 50% Fib ret @ 3'491.25 (Monthly Kijun-Sen) and the 61.8% Fib ret @ 3'180.25
Last but not least, the monthly clouds top level is currently @ 2'930 !! Have a look at the price
action seen in Q1 2020...
Never forget to look back on the long term picture !
DAILY (D1)
Rejection a couple of days ago from the daily clouds resistance zone, failure to stay above both the Mid Bollinger Band and the
daily downtrend resistance line.
Last daily closing below the Kijun-Sen but still above the Tenkan-Sen.
Lagging line again below the clouds.
RSI failed to hold above 50.
Watch 4'425 as the pivot point for further development; a failure to hold above that level on a daily closing basis would reopen
the door for lower levels towards the former low @ 4'212, roughly the double top target of 4'175.75.
Below the weekly clouds zone should be seen as the next very important support area (4'157-3810) (corroboration with the weekly
analysis above mentioned).
On the upside, ONLY a successful breakout of the 4'600 ahead of the "VERY THIN" daily clouds resistance zone (4'650) would force to a view reassessment
of the expected bearish scenario and if this recovery occurs, then the focus would be, at least, for a retest of the ATH above 4'800
4 HOURS (H4)
Recent price action in this time frame is showing the following :
1) Failure to recover above the Mid Bollinger Band
2) Last H4 closing level below the Tenkan Sen
3) RSI converging to the downside
Looks like further downside move is expected over the upcoming trading sessions.
Interesting to note that currently the clouds zone support is very thin (twist !!) and therefore it looks very fragile too.
A failure on H4 closing basis to hold above the clouds would directly put the focus on the congestion bottom of the former lows reached
between Jan 24th and Jan 28th (4'212.75-4'266.25).
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently in an ongoing new downtrend channel with its top resistance line around 4'530 (H1 clouds)
and its bottom support 4'430.
Therefore, on this H1 time frame, there are 2 levels to watch :
4'530
4'430
A breakout of one of those levels would give the direction for the near future.
RSI @ 47.02
Lagging line below the clouds.
All the best
Take care
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
This weekly price action is showing a recovery attempt which failed to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band on a weekly closing basis !
In addition the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 4'580.75 has been filled (high being 4'586) and the weekly closing was @ 4'492.50 which is exactly on
the razor's hedge (double top trigger level !!!)
Therefore, this recent upside corrective move should be seen as OVER !
Likely to see at least a retest of the former low, below the 4'200 (top of the weekly clouds support zone) during the upcoming session (s)
Just as a gentle reminder :
4'186.50 is ONLY THE 23.6 % FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF THE 2'174-4'808.25 RALLY...
meaning that there is plenty of space to the downside...
1) the 38.2% Fib being @ 3'802 (important as it is the bottom of the weekly clouds !)
2) the 50% Fib ret @ 3'491.25 (Monthly Kijun-Sen) and the 61.8% Fib ret @ 3'180.25
Last but not least, the monthly clouds top level is currently @ 2'930 !! Have a look at the price
action seen in Q1 2020...
Never forget to look back on the long term picture !
DAILY (D1)
Rejection a couple of days ago from the daily clouds resistance zone, failure to stay above both the Mid Bollinger Band and the
daily downtrend resistance line.
Last daily closing below the Kijun-Sen but still above the Tenkan-Sen.
Lagging line again below the clouds.
RSI failed to hold above 50.
Watch 4'425 as the pivot point for further development; a failure to hold above that level on a daily closing basis would reopen
the door for lower levels towards the former low @ 4'212, roughly the double top target of 4'175.75.
Below the weekly clouds zone should be seen as the next very important support area (4'157-3810) (corroboration with the weekly
analysis above mentioned).
On the upside, ONLY a successful breakout of the 4'600 ahead of the "VERY THIN" daily clouds resistance zone (4'650) would force to a view reassessment
of the expected bearish scenario and if this recovery occurs, then the focus would be, at least, for a retest of the ATH above 4'800
4 HOURS (H4)
Recent price action in this time frame is showing the following :
1) Failure to recover above the Mid Bollinger Band
2) Last H4 closing level below the Tenkan Sen
3) RSI converging to the downside
Looks like further downside move is expected over the upcoming trading sessions.
Interesting to note that currently the clouds zone support is very thin (twist !!) and therefore it looks very fragile too.
A failure on H4 closing basis to hold above the clouds would directly put the focus on the congestion bottom of the former lows reached
between Jan 24th and Jan 28th (4'212.75-4'266.25).
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently in an ongoing new downtrend channel with its top resistance line around 4'530 (H1 clouds)
and its bottom support 4'430.
Therefore, on this H1 time frame, there are 2 levels to watch :
4'530
4'430
A breakout of one of those levels would give the direction for the near future.
RSI @ 47.02
Lagging line below the clouds.
All the best
Take care
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
