10/5 Trading Plan - Reviewing Wednesday and Looking Ahead
Recap
Yesterday played out almost perfectly in ES. We had a big short squeeze after a final overnight flush, confirming our plan from the previous day. The final flush hit the 4230s, it defended, and then we saw a large squeeze to the 4304-08 final target. Today, we backtested the big multi-month support zone and ES put in a good green day with a large wick. The question now is whether the bulls can manage a second consecutive green day.
Key Structures
Support Levels
4287-91 (major), 4278, 4269 (major), 4254-58 (major), 4240, 4227-30 (major), 4220, 4212, 4205 (major), 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4153 (major), 4146, 4135, 4128 (major).
Resistance Levels
4308-13 (major), 4322, 4335, 4349-54 (major), 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4385, 4400, 4418, 4424 (major), 4433, 4440 (major), 4453, 4460, 4470-73 (major).
Trading Plan
Bull case: Bulls will need to defend supports on any dip off this zone. Ideally, this would be 4290ish, with 4267 being lowest. Below there, it is probably we need another leg down to a new low at 4230 before any sustained low can be set.
Bear case: In order to see new lows tomorrow, 4354-58 must fail. A few options to trade this - one could front run it by trading the fail of 4269. The alt is waiting for 4254 to fail and shorting at 4252 or so. Target is 4230.
Wrap Up
We are at a major decision point now and the price discovery here overnight and tomorrow will be key. My general lean if I had to provide one is that ES can go for green day #2 tomorrow. This will likely start with a dip first though, and bulls will need to defend that 4269 lowest. Next targets up are 4313, 4322, then back to the big 4336 level. If 4269 fails, its a warning that we need a new low. React, don’t predict.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
Yesterday played out almost perfectly in ES. We had a big short squeeze after a final overnight flush, confirming our plan from the previous day. The final flush hit the 4230s, it defended, and then we saw a large squeeze to the 4304-08 final target. Today, we backtested the big multi-month support zone and ES put in a good green day with a large wick. The question now is whether the bulls can manage a second consecutive green day.
Key Structures
- 4336 remains a major pivot and a battleground zone/magnet.
- 4308-13 is the core bull market uptrend line. It failed yesterday after 3 tests, and is now the new bull/bear line.
- 4254-58 and 4227-31 are major levels below there.
Support Levels
4287-91 (major), 4278, 4269 (major), 4254-58 (major), 4240, 4227-30 (major), 4220, 4212, 4205 (major), 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4153 (major), 4146, 4135, 4128 (major).
Resistance Levels
4308-13 (major), 4322, 4335, 4349-54 (major), 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4385, 4400, 4418, 4424 (major), 4433, 4440 (major), 4453, 4460, 4470-73 (major).
Trading Plan
Bull case: Bulls will need to defend supports on any dip off this zone. Ideally, this would be 4290ish, with 4267 being lowest. Below there, it is probably we need another leg down to a new low at 4230 before any sustained low can be set.
Bear case: In order to see new lows tomorrow, 4354-58 must fail. A few options to trade this - one could front run it by trading the fail of 4269. The alt is waiting for 4254 to fail and shorting at 4252 or so. Target is 4230.
Wrap Up
We are at a major decision point now and the price discovery here overnight and tomorrow will be key. My general lean if I had to provide one is that ES can go for green day #2 tomorrow. This will likely start with a dip first though, and bulls will need to defend that 4269 lowest. Next targets up are 4313, 4322, then back to the big 4336 level. If 4269 fails, its a warning that we need a new low. React, don’t predict.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
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