SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022

5 בדצמ׳ 2022

SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022

We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.64%, down from 2.82% last week according to VIX data

With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 56th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.87% movement
Bearish: 2.55% movement

At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 24.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 4188
BOT: 3960

Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 4110
26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 3942


Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 53% bullish trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend
4H timeframe indicates 53.3% bullish trend