ETHUSD - Swing Trades

מעודכן

// This post will be one continuous log of Nison/DeMark Swing Trading opportunities.

Look for long opportunities on bullish candlestick reversal signals at 50% large candle retrace near $202.69.

THE ASCENDING TRIANGE PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET
HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN REACHED AT
THE DEMARK 9 SELL, EXHAUSTION POINT.

A LITTLE KNOWN HIDDEN SUPPORT LEVEL IN TRADING
IS THE 50% FIB OF A VERY LARGE CANDLE,
SUCH AS WE HAD IN THIS MOVE.

LET'S ASSUME THAT INEXPERIENCED TRADERS ARE BUYING
THE TOP HERE AND LOOK TO BUY AT THE HIDDEN 50%
SUPPORT LEVEL NEAR $203, NEAR/WITHIN THE IDEAL
PB&J ENTRY LEVEL AT EMA 30.

LOOKING AT THE PARALLEL CHANNELS, WE SEE ALSO
THAT WE'RE NEAR THE TOP. A PULLBACK HERE
MAKES THE MOST SENSE.

GIVEN SEVERAL OTHER FACTORS I BELIEVE THAT THE
NEXT PROFIT TARGETS AFTER THE PULLBACK ARE
IN THE UPWARD CHANNEL ABOVE THE PRESENT ONE.

TAKE PROFITS. HAVE FUN!

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Zoomed in:

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Shooting Star was end of the road for top-buyers. Fib rebuy targets below.

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Expect sell-off bottom in approx. 90 minutes. Horizontal yellow lines are buy orders - pyramid buying. I'm looking to buy the shadow(s) below EMA 30 and BB lower deviation and sell pullups for quick profit. Knife catching and quick selling at market. I'll look to buy and hold after 90 minutes, only when we get a bullish candlestick reversal pattern.

עסקה פעילה

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Target: Fib Channel top @220

Note: Trading only the Daily chart using PB&J, one would have entered at 170.94 on the Morning Star. Waiting for candle close to make buy/sell decisions one would still be in that trade. Trading Daily charts using candlestick analysis and PB&J is super profitable.

העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני

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העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני

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DeMark Sell Setup 9 on next H4 candle. Hourly RSI/MACD/RSI (right pane) suggest trend exhaustion.

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Warning: Weekly BTCUSD (left pane) would would hit minor downtrend line +5.4% from current price.

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Steve Nison teaches that if he could only choose 3 indicators, they would be candles, volume, and ADX. He teaches that in ADX, "SLOPE IS KEY".

Potential entry near 207.41 @ 50% fib & EMA 30.

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Given TD Sequential completed a Sell Setup on H4 I figure the following fibs are the most likely reversal levels.

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Layout: [1H | 1H Indicators |1D |1W]

Let's read from right to left.

Bitcoin Weekly had a huge +24.2% candle as has currently pulled back to the 23.60% fib level.

Bitcoin Daily is on a Perfected TD Sequential Sell Setup today. The 9 today indicates that this candle is the uptrend's point of exhaustion. The three candlestick pattern developing appears to be an Evening Star bearish reversal signal. The present state of the 9 may represent one of two things. Either a) because the Weekly is on a 4/9 TD Sell Setup, we expect that the 9 is the target and thus this pullback will be shallow, perhaps the market will only pull back into 23.60%, or b) The Daily 9 exhaustion acts as usual and does pull back 50% or deeper into the previous tall white candle.

Weekly bullish, Daily exhausts today, okay. What does the Hourly say? What if this 9 is going to shoot up really high because it's still 14H until candle close so it might now be exhausted yet!

Let's look at the first Layout (far left) - Hourly ETHUSD (I trade ETH because it's more profitable).
We're at resistance. People like to buy breakouts. We know that buying breakouts is both high risk as statistically fails more often that it wins. Here are two Nison strategies:

1) COP (Change of Polarity) Breakout strategy:
Steve Nison would buy after a candle close above resistance (hopefully with strong volume), after candlestick confirmation. This means that the next candle should prove itself bullish. Right now the candle is 8/9 of a TD Sell Setup and the candle has not proven itself to be bullish, thus no buying. Had it proven itself, a SL would be placed below the zone of resistance (shaded horizontal range).

2) PB&J (Pullback to Sweet Spot) strategy:
Syl (certified Nison trainer) would look to buy pullbacks into the sweet spot between SMA 10 & EMA 30 after a Golden Cross.

So what's more likely to happen here, just looking at the 1H chart? Well, there's a Perfected TD Sell Setup (8/9) which indicates that the uptrend is near exhaustion. People like to buy at the top and lose money, we know that. It looks like we could get a Golden Cross here, thus leaving the possibility that we can buy on bullish reversal signals within the sweet spot, above resistance. Remember COP (Change of Polarity)? COP means old resistance becoming support, or vice versa.

What does H1 layout #2 indicate? RSI is bullish and not oversold. MACD is bullish and pointing up. DMI (ADX) shows that the uptrend is nearing neutral, and -DI & +DI show a battle between bears and bulls, with bulls presently in control. OBV shows the precarity moment. OBV has crossed above EMA 24, showing both the bullish potential and how vulnerable the market is to reversing bearish here.

We wait and look for a PB&J entry, if not now then later. There will always be another low risk PB&J entry.

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Correction (TradingView doesn't like my brackets):
Layout: 1H | 1H Indicators |1D |1W

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BEFORE:

AFTER:

PB&J:
Let's see...

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High Risk Trade, set stop below LOW of candle.

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I'm wondering if we'll get a massive Hammer on the 9 which will take us to the top of the channel.

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There's a Nison Swing Trading option to buy now. This is a Swing Low. The low of this candle is higher than the low of the previous, and this is the exhaustion candle. PB&J Dead Cross can be nulled with strong demand here. At candle close I'll set SL at this candle's low.

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+12% up move coming right up?

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That's assuming triangle breakout.

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If we close m15 above SMA 50 and the fib pivot at $212 I think we'll breakout of the triangle with +12% target. If we don't, probably a short will be killer.

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Took profits. Waiting for m15 Stoch K/D to be oversold.

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Opening a Swing Trade long here looks strong.

H4 PB&J:

H4 TT9:

zerocashcool

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