Brexit, the [upcoming] Euro crisis and the simple math
מעודכן
Much like during WWI when Germany was "Shackled to a corpse" in the form of it's alliance with the Hapsburg Empire, so was Britain until recently, through it's union with the EU.
Now, although Britain is finally free, chances are that this came a day late and a dollar short.
Let's be real! - The European Union is nothing more than a rotting corps, not unlike every single large, closely nit trans-national alliance throughout the entire history of mankind. This is an inescapable fact of History.
This is not only a historical fact but just as importantly, there are countless (computer, mathematical, socio-economic) simulations and models which bear this out, to a " T ". - With unanimous, categorical results.
[ Much like the more than easily provable fact that if the US had 50 different "dollars", each representing the economies of a single state, only, the US as a whole would be many times more prosperous and stable in such a union. I.e. Without a monetary union!]
Brexit is now concluded and the question remains; "What will that mean for Britain?". - Or rather, what are the prospects of the Pound vs. the Euro. The title chart being the Quarterly EURGBP.
Well, as it stands at the moment;
1) Not even a pandemic combined with the "dreadful" Brexit could push the Euro above 0.95 British Pounds;
2) Corollary to the above - and perhaps even more strikingly -, all the while the GBP remains the worst performing G10 currency by a wide margin;
3) While Europe was having it's "Maastricht Moment", the BoE decided to inflate it's own balance sheet to the tune of an eye-popping 120% of GDP.
So, if these combined factors still refused to sink the Pound (and Britain with it, into the North-Sea) versus the Euro than what exactly would it take??...
E.g.; This is not so because the Pound is so great, stable and a resilient currency despite all those factors but could it be that this is because the European Union is "rotting corps" and as such it is doomed, in the not too distant future.
Don't believe it? - No problem. Take a look at the title chart and decide whether to "... believe your lying eyes".
Now, although Britain is finally free, chances are that this came a day late and a dollar short.
Let's be real! - The European Union is nothing more than a rotting corps, not unlike every single large, closely nit trans-national alliance throughout the entire history of mankind. This is an inescapable fact of History.
This is not only a historical fact but just as importantly, there are countless (computer, mathematical, socio-economic) simulations and models which bear this out, to a " T ". - With unanimous, categorical results.
[ Much like the more than easily provable fact that if the US had 50 different "dollars", each representing the economies of a single state, only, the US as a whole would be many times more prosperous and stable in such a union. I.e. Without a monetary union!]
Brexit is now concluded and the question remains; "What will that mean for Britain?". - Or rather, what are the prospects of the Pound vs. the Euro. The title chart being the Quarterly EURGBP.
Well, as it stands at the moment;
1) Not even a pandemic combined with the "dreadful" Brexit could push the Euro above 0.95 British Pounds;
2) Corollary to the above - and perhaps even more strikingly -, all the while the GBP remains the worst performing G10 currency by a wide margin;
3) While Europe was having it's "Maastricht Moment", the BoE decided to inflate it's own balance sheet to the tune of an eye-popping 120% of GDP.
So, if these combined factors still refused to sink the Pound (and Britain with it, into the North-Sea) versus the Euro than what exactly would it take??...
E.g.; This is not so because the Pound is so great, stable and a resilient currency despite all those factors but could it be that this is because the European Union is "rotting corps" and as such it is doomed, in the not too distant future.
Don't believe it? - No problem. Take a look at the title chart and decide whether to "... believe your lying eyes".
הערה
*** NoteA paragraph ended up "hidden" - above - thus, here it goes;
It has also been widely modeled, examined and proven that the US itself would be a far more powerful, stable and prosperous economy if each state had it's own monetary base (50 different "dollars") without a currency union!
הערה
Before I forget;This is a LONG, for now.
הערה
Like I said; This is still a LONG here...... likely going for a blow-off to form a long term (forever?!) Double Top.
הערה
... and thenBooom!!
הערה
.... likely to begin that - above - long-term (forever?!) dive, on or around this coming Monday..... the 18th of Jan,. 2021.
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