EURNZD Top-Down Analysis #FOREX 02.03.19

3 בפבר׳ 2019

Monthly

• Price rejected our monthly disturbance zone @ 1.7850, accumulating mass amounts of buy orders.
  
• A bearish engulfing candle with a long wick confirmed long term sells off the 1.7850 level.
  
• Price broke beneath the monthly disturbance zone @ 1.66875, which was an incredibly strong level of support.
  
• Price closed beneath the consolidation, confirming position/swing sell setups after a pullback. DON'T SELL AT LOWS.
  
• Price rejected the monthly disturbance zone @ 1.6350, retracing and setting up sells.
  

Weekly

• After price broke and closed beneath consolidation, we saw a pullback to the weekly disturbance level @ 1.72125.
  
• Accumulated buy orders within the wicks, enough for the shift in momentum back to the downside.
  
• A candlestick reversal pattern following the 1.72125 disturbance level confirmed a continuation to the downside.
  
• Last week's close beneath the monthly disturbance level @ 1.66875, may function as a level of resistance now. We will look for liquidity to be captured here. Don't fall for the buy trap.
  
  Daily
  • Once price closed beneath our previous higher low (1.6525), we confirmed a break of structure AKA a shift in momentum.
    
  • Price rejected the monthly disturbance level @ 1.6350, accumulated sell orders and began the daily tf pullback.
    
  • When price briefly poked outside of a daily level of resistance but engulfed the previous daily, it confirmed that selling opportunities are present. Buyers lost a great amount of momentum and were fooled into trading the breakout without enough confirmations. This is a key example of a liquidity capture. Downtrend continues from here.
    
  • Currently rejecting the Daily Disturbance level @ 1.66125.
    
  • Based off of Fibonacci extension in a correction wave, price could reach all the way to 1.5750.
    
  4H
  • Once price closes beneath the (4H) higher low (1.6850) market structure is broken and shift momentum to the downside. 4H bearish trend is present based off of market structure.
    
  • Price downtrends to monthly disturbance level (1.66875) to complete the first (4H) bearish wave and begin the pullback.
    
  • Price retraces to the 4H disturbance level (1.69375), accumulates buy orders with the long wick before the melt, lower high created.
    
  • Currently rejecting Daily disturbance level (1.6625) and -14.6% Fib Level, could see consolidation occur here and a long wick to the upside to capture plenty of buy orders before our drop again.
    
  1H
  • See 4H breakdown for level rejection.
    
  • Currently in a consolidation range (1.6590 - 1.6620).
    
  • If price temporarily shoots above 1.6620 but closes beneath resistance and provides a candlestick reversal pattern, sells are likely.
    
  • A more conservative approach would be to WAIT for the 4H & 1H to close beneath current consolidation. Allow the market to breathe in (pullback) before entering in sell positions.
    
  • Currently rejecting the 61.8% retracement Fib Level, if price holds this level of resistance, a projected move to 1.6500.