EURUSD entering a period of low volatility, lowest since 2014

11 בפבר׳ 2019

The Average True Range is an underestimated indicator, especially more so when the coefficient is at the lowest rate since April 2014 (pre negative IR levels).

This could mean a significant move either to the upside or downside imminent as the range sets to turn.

The EURUSD is down over 1.5% this week, and this is mainly due to a rally in the US$, however, the EUR weakness driven by a perhaps negatively perceived ECB ending QE news. For now, the market expects rate hikes from the ECB depending on macroeconomic data recovering. Near-term risks are still weighing to the downside, but in the long-term, we could see a reversal depending on the Central Banks stance.