H1 demand 1.0955/1.0946 open to a whipsaw to 1.0925
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May is seen recovering off worst levels, on track to perhaps form another Japanese hammer candlestick pattern out of current demand.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Pattern traders will note a large potential bearish pennant configuration, forming since late March between 1.1147/1.0635.
Wednesday had the common currency outperform against its US counterpart, lashing through the upper border of the current pennant formation. Yet, Thursday failed to deliver much follow through, capping a few pips ahead of the 200-day simple moving average, currently circling 1.1013.
H4 timeframe:
The Euro lost ground against the buck Thursday, establishing a top ahead of familiar supply coming in from 1.1057/1.1013, positioning the spotlight back on demand at 1.0925/1.0897 (prior supply). Should buyers continue to take a back seat, a breach of 1.0925/1.0897 highlights demand at 1.0799/1.0827, which, as you can see, crosses with a trendline support (1.0635).
H1 timeframe:
Data had Eurozone PMIs come in better than expected on Thursday, although still languishing below 50. US initial unemployment claims dropped for a seventh successive week, totalling nearly 40 million filings since mid-March.
Early US observed a whipsaw through orders at the widely watched 1.10 level, a move which scored highs at 1.1008, before collapsing to fresh demand at 1.0955/1.0946. It was no surprise to see this area cap downside yesterday, as the base effectively represents the decision point to topple supply (prior demand) at 1.0971/1.0990. This equates to strength.
Beneath current demand, technicians will note the 100-period simple moving average at 1.0920 lurks close by, as does the 1.09 handle.
Structures of Interest:
It was stated in Thursday’s analysis we may see a run of buy-stops above 1.10 to bring in 1.1015ish before sellers make their debut. While a fake above 1.10 did indeed take shape, we missed 1.1015.
Although H1 demand holds at 1.0955/1.0946, a whipsaw through this angle to 1.0925 could be seen, the top edge of H4 demand. Interestingly, the 100-period simple moving average is sited close by the H4 demand at 1.0920. Therefore, buyers may make an entrance from 1.0920/25 today.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May is seen recovering off worst levels, on track to perhaps form another Japanese hammer candlestick pattern out of current demand.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Pattern traders will note a large potential bearish pennant configuration, forming since late March between 1.1147/1.0635.
Wednesday had the common currency outperform against its US counterpart, lashing through the upper border of the current pennant formation. Yet, Thursday failed to deliver much follow through, capping a few pips ahead of the 200-day simple moving average, currently circling 1.1013.
H4 timeframe:
The Euro lost ground against the buck Thursday, establishing a top ahead of familiar supply coming in from 1.1057/1.1013, positioning the spotlight back on demand at 1.0925/1.0897 (prior supply). Should buyers continue to take a back seat, a breach of 1.0925/1.0897 highlights demand at 1.0799/1.0827, which, as you can see, crosses with a trendline support (1.0635).
H1 timeframe:
Data had Eurozone PMIs come in better than expected on Thursday, although still languishing below 50. US initial unemployment claims dropped for a seventh successive week, totalling nearly 40 million filings since mid-March.
Early US observed a whipsaw through orders at the widely watched 1.10 level, a move which scored highs at 1.1008, before collapsing to fresh demand at 1.0955/1.0946. It was no surprise to see this area cap downside yesterday, as the base effectively represents the decision point to topple supply (prior demand) at 1.0971/1.0990. This equates to strength.
Beneath current demand, technicians will note the 100-period simple moving average at 1.0920 lurks close by, as does the 1.09 handle.
Structures of Interest:
It was stated in Thursday’s analysis we may see a run of buy-stops above 1.10 to bring in 1.1015ish before sellers make their debut. While a fake above 1.10 did indeed take shape, we missed 1.1015.
Although H1 demand holds at 1.0955/1.0946, a whipsaw through this angle to 1.0925 could be seen, the top edge of H4 demand. Interestingly, the 100-period simple moving average is sited close by the H4 demand at 1.0920. Therefore, buyers may make an entrance from 1.0920/25 today.
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