EUR/USD reasons why price reached 1.1800, what to expect ahead?
Why price broke above 1.1750 and reached 1.1800?
1- Fed monetary policy updates >>
- U.S. data eased fears that Fed may soon pare back stimulus so much that traders appeared to ignore a call from within the central bank to do just that -
- Kansas city Fed chief said she is ready to see bond-buying trimmed as the economy has made "substantial" progress in its recovery, while much of the recent spike in inflation will likely be temporary, the labor market is improving and inflation expectations are firm, she said she doesnt vote this year but will in 2022 -
- The latest inflation figures that will help Federal Reserve policy are out and what economists expected, consumer prices rose 0.5% in July compared to the month before, a modest but persistent increase, a study earlier this week showed a medium term inflation expectations at 8 year high and the Fed will want to see if the increase in prices is temporary or not before taking any action -
Why recent price is still not considered as a bullish signal?
ANALYSIS AND REASONS
- THESE UPDATES DECREASED THE EXPECTATIONS THAT IN NEXT FED CHAIR POWELL SPEAKS WILL BE ANY ANNOUNCEMENT ON TAPERING CALENDAR DATE, DELAYING TAPER MEANS MORE PRINTING DOLLAR COMBINED WITH HIGH INFLATION IS VERY USD NEGATIVE, BUT MY POINT OF VIEW THAT THIS MOVEMENT IS NOT FIRM, TO BE FOLLOWED WITH A CONSOLIDATION OF 1.1820-1.1700 CONSOLIDATION AHEAD OF POWELL'S SPEAKS, IF DELAY TAPER THEN SHORT POSITIONS SHALL BE CLOSED AND SHIFTED TO LONG, HOWEVER I SEE POWELL HAS NO OPTION BUT TO CONTAIN THE RISING INFLATION AND ANNOUNCE THE CALENDAR DATE OF TAPERING ASSET PURCHASES -
- ECB PREVIOUSLY APPROVED TO BE LONGER TERM DOVISH, AND TO EXTEND ITS MASSIVE BONG-BUYING PROGRAM -
- ACCORDING TO EU CPI REPORTS, INFLATION IS RISING IN EU -
CONCLUSION
- SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE = 1.1830 - 1.1700, HOWEVER I DON'T EXPECT HIGHER HIGH OR LOWER LOW AHEAD OF POWELL'S SPEAKS (WEEKLY FRAME) -
- LATEST BULLISH MOVE IS NOT CONSIDERED A BULLISH SIGNAL AS LONG AS FED HAVE NOT HAD ANNOUCED TO DELAY TAPER -
- STILL THE CURRENCY PAIR IS BEARISH -
- BREAKING BELOW 1.1700 OR BREAKING ABOVE 1.1850 DEPENDS ON THE TAPER UPDATES - (AWAITED ON TUESDAY)
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
1- Fed monetary policy updates >>
- U.S. data eased fears that Fed may soon pare back stimulus so much that traders appeared to ignore a call from within the central bank to do just that -
- Kansas city Fed chief said she is ready to see bond-buying trimmed as the economy has made "substantial" progress in its recovery, while much of the recent spike in inflation will likely be temporary, the labor market is improving and inflation expectations are firm, she said she doesnt vote this year but will in 2022 -
- The latest inflation figures that will help Federal Reserve policy are out and what economists expected, consumer prices rose 0.5% in July compared to the month before, a modest but persistent increase, a study earlier this week showed a medium term inflation expectations at 8 year high and the Fed will want to see if the increase in prices is temporary or not before taking any action -
Why recent price is still not considered as a bullish signal?
ANALYSIS AND REASONS
- THESE UPDATES DECREASED THE EXPECTATIONS THAT IN NEXT FED CHAIR POWELL SPEAKS WILL BE ANY ANNOUNCEMENT ON TAPERING CALENDAR DATE, DELAYING TAPER MEANS MORE PRINTING DOLLAR COMBINED WITH HIGH INFLATION IS VERY USD NEGATIVE, BUT MY POINT OF VIEW THAT THIS MOVEMENT IS NOT FIRM, TO BE FOLLOWED WITH A CONSOLIDATION OF 1.1820-1.1700 CONSOLIDATION AHEAD OF POWELL'S SPEAKS, IF DELAY TAPER THEN SHORT POSITIONS SHALL BE CLOSED AND SHIFTED TO LONG, HOWEVER I SEE POWELL HAS NO OPTION BUT TO CONTAIN THE RISING INFLATION AND ANNOUNCE THE CALENDAR DATE OF TAPERING ASSET PURCHASES -
- ECB PREVIOUSLY APPROVED TO BE LONGER TERM DOVISH, AND TO EXTEND ITS MASSIVE BONG-BUYING PROGRAM -
- ACCORDING TO EU CPI REPORTS, INFLATION IS RISING IN EU -
CONCLUSION
- SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE = 1.1830 - 1.1700, HOWEVER I DON'T EXPECT HIGHER HIGH OR LOWER LOW AHEAD OF POWELL'S SPEAKS (WEEKLY FRAME) -
- LATEST BULLISH MOVE IS NOT CONSIDERED A BULLISH SIGNAL AS LONG AS FED HAVE NOT HAD ANNOUCED TO DELAY TAPER -
- STILL THE CURRENCY PAIR IS BEARISH -
- BREAKING BELOW 1.1700 OR BREAKING ABOVE 1.1850 DEPENDS ON THE TAPER UPDATES - (AWAITED ON TUESDAY)
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
כתב ויתור
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