EURUSD: UT Retracement Analysis

PROBABLE UPTREND RETRACEMENT ON THE HORIZON
NOTE: Below is the "Related Publication" of the analysis on the EURUSD (12)

Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair exhibits distinct price action characteristics across multiple timeframes. A focused analysis of recent trends and technical indicators reveals key levels and potential movements:

Trend Assessment

• On the 5-day (5D) and 8-hour (8H) timeframes, price action reflects a downtrend.
  
• The Mid-Pivot (MP) at 1.04059 has been reached, signaling potential consolidation.
  

Key Levels

• Pivot High @ 1.12757
  
• Resistance @ 1.1159, major
  
• Resistance @ 1.1069, minor
  
• Resistance @ 1.0975, minor
  
• Resistance @ 1.0806, minor
  
• Resistance @ 1.0710, minor
  
• Support I @ 0.9750, major
  
• Support II @ 0.9595, major
  
• Pivot Low @ 0.9536
  

Supply and Demand Zones

• Supply Zone: 1.10832 to 1.12142
  
• Demand Zone: 0.9730 to 0.9976
  

Seasonality Impact

• Historically, the last quarter signals increased economic activity.
  
• This seasonal influence suggests a likely reversal to an uptrend from Mid-Pivot.
  
• A move towards the Supply Zone at 1.10832-1.12142 is plausible.
  

Technical Indicators Summary

• Oscillators: Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other momentum indicators show neutral biases with specific buy signals (CCI at −126.46, Momentum at −0.05033).
  
• Moving Averages: Exponential and Simple Moving Averages (EMAs and SMAs) across all periods indicate bearish signals.
  

Trading Strategy Suggestions

• High-Risk Traders: Can cautiously trade the expected uptrend from MP to the Supply Zone.
  
• Conservative Traders: Should implement creative risk management techniques to handle potential retracements until the downtrend resumes.
  

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The fundamental backdrop provides critical insights into EURUSD's prospective movements

1. Economic Seasonality: The last quarter typically showcases enhanced liquidity and economic vibrancy, aligning with historical data supporting a shift to bullish activity.
   
2. Macroeconomic Factors: The EUR's recovery prospects may be influenced by the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policies, upcoming inflation data, and trade flows between the EU and the US. On the USD side, Federal Reserve policies and economic indicators (e.g., Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI) will impact the pair's trajectory.
   
3. Geopolitical Considerations: Trade tensions, energy crises in Europe, and interest rate differentials remain pivotal. A dovish stance by the Fed or ECB's economic stimulus can amplify EUR strength.
   

ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAYS

1. Major Uptrend Retracement: The confluence of technical and fundamental factors supports the probability of a major uptrend retracement. Swing traders should closely monitor resistance levels and oscillators for confirmation of bullish momentum.
   
   
2. Risk Management: Utilize adaptive stop-loss strategies. Example: Tie stop-loss levels to the ATR-based calculations to mitigate volatility.