During the ECB Watchers conference, ECB President Lagarde reiterated last week's decision, with a greater emphasis on the hawkish elements than the dovish ones. She emphasized the baseline scenario of ending APP in Q3 and interest rate hikes occurring sometime thereafter when discussing normalization. The most important aspect of her remarks is the focus on being "creative" and "designing new instruments" if necessary to address any threat to monetary policy transition and fragmentation. This is a strong indication of the possibility of an energy emergency program similar to PEPP, which could serve as a massive energy backstop. Such a program could counteract the negative effects of higher oil prices and encourage more investment in Europe, ultimately supporting the euro.
Energy emergency program could drive more flows to Europe
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