EURUSD OUtlook 1/30

First week of February should be interesting as NFP is on friday. Here is what i am seeing in the market from a liquidity perspective. Would like to ultimately see price melt. But it can do a number of things between now and Friday.

I will be posting the following on my YT channel

- Video style weekly outlooks
- Video style weekly recaps
- Risk management techniques
- Psychological conditioning techniques

My first video breaks down the concepts of liquidity, time, and price from a big picture perspective.

הערה:

im long on EU and doubled up position after a bullish BMS above the daily open and a return to the open.

הערה:

going BE

הערה:

הערה:

looking for a quick expansion move

הערה:

added to my position. Not looking to see price trade below the weekly open until liquidity capture.

הערה:

Still in both, had to give the second more room and take on more risk, was with minimum risk, however this is not a risk management habit that will serve in the long term.

הערה:

Closed out for small profit. I didnt get the expansion I was looking for. know when to cut the bait.

הערה:

I dont usually trade asia, but I think EU could be cooking something off the breaker block. would need for asia low to not be violated by london to survive this. small risk.

הערה:

putting SL below the low, not looking to absorb significant drawdown on this, its either it or its not.

הערה:

Going fully BE

הערה:

moving well. the breaker block play was premature during NY session but the idea was valid. playing off the breaker during NY is sneaky and not ideal for participation as I usually dont trade asia.

העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני:

Closed out for profit before NY open. Puts me squarely back in the green for the week. I still believe price will complete TPs, but there is high impact news and I want to secure what I got. Would look to re-enter long if news gives a significant retracement during NY

הערה:

price continues to climb to initial targets. Which is fine. The goal is to make decisions with certainty. Price is always going to be moving, but you need to justify exposure based on analysis of the risk.

הערה:

looking for a short

הערה:

tapped in

הערה:

reducing risk

הערה:

geez, glad i was on he right side, the slippage would have been crazy if not. Probably should second guess trading news in the future.

הערה:

TPs set, SL to BE

הערה:

close to taken out at BE. just gonna let this play however it wants to. that 1min OB has its work cut out for it.

הערה:

well i'll be lol. SL in profit.

הערה:

taken out just over BE. all good. idea was valid. TPs were valid. market is in a weird state as a lot of news. Probably done for the day.

הערה:

short on EU with small risk

הערה:

reducing exposure

הערה:

risk free

הערה:

I think EU is bearish short term for a while, not a swing trader tho so wont be holding.

הערה:

the market isnt going to let up and give a retracement. everybody chasing the buy after yesterday's news will be forced to cover.

הערה:

would like an opportunity to add to the position. something like this.

הערה:

added to pos off 15 min FVG.

הערה:

not expecting another high.

הערה:

would like to see it expand quickly to the downside.

הערה:

the bullish breaker is a risk to the trade as it can reverse price. but my bias is that it fails.

הערה:

price will expand lower as they are forced to cover their positions.

הערה:

if you look at DXY, price did not trade above the open price. this represents a buyside inefficiency that price will want to fill after having achieved liquidity below.

הערה:

theoretical short added for education/learning, not a real position.

הערה:

TP1 Hit, 80% closed out. Theoretical trade would have been profitable.

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג:

Decided to close entire position and book the trade completely as price hits an 8hr FVG.

הערה:

considering a low risk buy.

הערה:

tapped in, done for the day if it fails.

הערה:

reduced risk.

הערה:

going fully BE.

הערה:

added a TP

הערה:

theoretical add for analysis

הערה:

theoreticall wouldve been stopped out. 30min FVG below.

הערה:

added to position forreal.

הערה:

flying close to the sun on 2nd pos.

הערה:

price is moving favorably.

הערה:

added another position, this is pretty risky ill be honest. but for now i like the idea.

הערה:

4th position added. all other SL moved to BE, so that risk remains 1R for entire trade idea.

הערה:

הערה:

closed first pos for profit so I could give these more room

הערה:

giving it till this low. risk management wasnt 100 today, but still in profit.

הערה:

looks like trade may survive, got a little carried away. Hubris. should have waited for afternoon session.

הערה:

limiting exposure as price turns favorable.

עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ

הערה:

demo trading today as its NFP. but i would look for a short in this area if price returns.

הערה:

looking for a sell if i cant get a signal (demo)

הערה:

demo short

הערה:

didnt hold, taken out quickly.

הערה:

one more attempt similar entry

הערה:

demo

הערה:

TPs set

הערה:

blink and you miss it. the slippage would be crazy if you are on the wrong side. thats why we demo

הערה:

הערה:

was not expecting that deep a retracement. anyones guess what price does next.

הערה:

Taken out BE after a ride. oh well. done for the week. probably wont trade on monday. back on tuesday.

הערה:

הערה:

giving it one more chance on demo. this area really should act as resistance.

הערה:

looks to be moving well. added to position. however i feel like i have overtraded this week even though it has been profitable. will try to be a bit more measured into next week.

הערה:

high confidence of completion at this point.

הערה:

impatient traders would've bought at the first signs of "reversal" trying to buy low and sell high. without a narrative as to what price is going to achieve. price takes its time to achieve its targets in order to "bait" traders into bad positions and thus bring more liquidity into the market.

Price then achieves its targets capturing all of this induced liquidity along the way.

Yes, price is low, but is it low enough? if not why are you buying? its not low enough in my opinion. which means market makers are likely to keep pushing.

הערה:

3rd position added. SL moved to profit for the other 2.

הערה:

all SLs moved to BE of the last position.

הערה:

You can be right, or wrong, but price is not random. you need to have a basic understanding of how price delivers, and a hypothesis on what price is trying to achieve.

Then you need a risk management approach that accounts for when your hypothesis wrong.

הערה:

didnt see this 30 min FVG, giving them more room and taking on more risk on 3rd.

הערה:

SL back to BE for the third. not moving it any more. whatever happens happens. last update till either SL or TP.

הערה:

TP 1 hit and 80+% closed out. considering this trade over, small runners till final TP.

Back at it next week!

הערה:

all TPs hit, look like TP 2 was the weekly bottom level.