EURUSD: close to oversold
Investors' interest was focused on the Jackson Hole conference which was held in Wyoming during the previous week. The major event of the conference was a speech held by the Fed Chair Powell. He continues with a precaution note, not providing to the market almost any news, which wasn’t already incorporated into the price of both equities and Treasuries. The inflation of 2% remains the only focus of the Fed in the coming period, which might imply further rate increases in order to achieve this targeted level. Published data during the week were related for US Durable Goods Orders, which were down by -5.2% in July compared to the previous month, and above market estimate of -4.0%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for August was standing at 69.5, lower from forecasted 71.2.
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash has improved a bit in August to the level of 39.1 from 38.8 a month before, however, it still stands below 50. Germany GDP Growth Rate for Q2 remained within the frame of market expectations of -0.2% y/y. The Ifo Business Climate for Germany in August reached 85.7 a bit less than both market expectations and previous month`s level of 87.4. German economic activity evidently continues to slow down further. There has not been published important data for the Euro Area during the previous week.
USD gained during the week against Euro. The currency pair started the week at level of 1.09 but soon took the downtrend, reaching weekly lowest level at 1.077. The pair finished the week at level of 1.080. RSI ended the week at the level of 32, which is quite close to the oversold side. Although it has not been clearly reached, there is a potential for it in the week ahead. Moving average of 50 days started its modest convergence toward the MA200 counterpart, but it is still too early to think about potential so-called the dead-cross.
The currency pair is quite close to the reversal point, at least based on the RSI indicator. However, the level of 1.07 is not a significant level for the currency pair. Next support line lies at 1.06 level, which is indicated on the charts that might be tested in the coming period. The level of 1.067 was the lowest level of the pair in June this year, which might be a short term target of the currency pair. However, charts are indicating the reversal point in the coming week, which might bring eurusd once again toward level of 1.10. This move might be supported through economic indicators which will be released during the week ahead, like non-farm payrolls and PCE Price Index for July.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence for September, Germany Inflation Rate for August preliminary, Germany Unemployment Rate in August, Euro Area Inflation Rate for August, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USD: CB Consumer Confidence for August, GDP Growth Rate 2nd Estimate, PCE Price Index for July, Non-Farm Payrolls for August, ISM Manufacturing PMI for August
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash has improved a bit in August to the level of 39.1 from 38.8 a month before, however, it still stands below 50. Germany GDP Growth Rate for Q2 remained within the frame of market expectations of -0.2% y/y. The Ifo Business Climate for Germany in August reached 85.7 a bit less than both market expectations and previous month`s level of 87.4. German economic activity evidently continues to slow down further. There has not been published important data for the Euro Area during the previous week.
USD gained during the week against Euro. The currency pair started the week at level of 1.09 but soon took the downtrend, reaching weekly lowest level at 1.077. The pair finished the week at level of 1.080. RSI ended the week at the level of 32, which is quite close to the oversold side. Although it has not been clearly reached, there is a potential for it in the week ahead. Moving average of 50 days started its modest convergence toward the MA200 counterpart, but it is still too early to think about potential so-called the dead-cross.
The currency pair is quite close to the reversal point, at least based on the RSI indicator. However, the level of 1.07 is not a significant level for the currency pair. Next support line lies at 1.06 level, which is indicated on the charts that might be tested in the coming period. The level of 1.067 was the lowest level of the pair in June this year, which might be a short term target of the currency pair. However, charts are indicating the reversal point in the coming week, which might bring eurusd once again toward level of 1.10. This move might be supported through economic indicators which will be released during the week ahead, like non-farm payrolls and PCE Price Index for July.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence for September, Germany Inflation Rate for August preliminary, Germany Unemployment Rate in August, Euro Area Inflation Rate for August, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USD: CB Consumer Confidence for August, GDP Growth Rate 2nd Estimate, PCE Price Index for July, Non-Farm Payrolls for August, ISM Manufacturing PMI for August
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