EUR/USD analysis heading into Tuesday...
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [0.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, though did manage to squeeze out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, viewed as a bullish reversal candlestick signal.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Friday, as you can see, nudged through the April 15 high at 1.0990, unmasking the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1034. Areas of relevance beyond the noted structures can be seen at the March 27 high from 1.1147 and supply at 1.1239/1.1179.
Leaving the said SMA value unchallenged, however, EUR/USD twisted lower Monday and wiped more than 70 pips into the close. This positions the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 back in the frame, with a break here underscoring demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Friday unearthed a reasonably well-presented Japanese shooting star candlestick pattern, viewed as a bearish reversal signal. Interestingly, the pattern formed off the lower boundary of supply at 1.1057/1.1013, joined with a trendline support-turned resistance (1.0635), a 61.8% Fib level at 1.0989 and a Fib ext. level from 1.0987.
As shown on the chart, price action had little trouble pressing lower Monday, reaching 1.0906/1.0878, a supply-turned demand area. Ongoing downside from this angle would absorb bids from current demand and shift focus in the direction of a trendline resistance-turned support (1.1147).
H1 timeframe:
As the US dollar index put in a stronger-than-expected recovery from daily demand at 98.18/98.65, EUR/USD found itself under pressure Monday. Intraday flow toppled 1.0950, swiftly retested the base as resistance and subsequently made its way towards 1.09. Residing close by is the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0908 and a trendline support (1.0727). Beyond this region we also have demand plotted at 1.0842/1.0857, which happens to intersect with 1.0850.
Structures of Interest:
1.09 on the H1 timeframe could firm out today, largely as a result of H4 demand at 1.0906/1.0878, monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912 and additional support in the form of a H1 trendline. A H1 close above the 100-period SMA would help confirm interest from buyers and may pull for at least the 1.0950 base.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [0.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, though did manage to squeeze out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, viewed as a bullish reversal candlestick signal.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Friday, as you can see, nudged through the April 15 high at 1.0990, unmasking the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1034. Areas of relevance beyond the noted structures can be seen at the March 27 high from 1.1147 and supply at 1.1239/1.1179.
Leaving the said SMA value unchallenged, however, EUR/USD twisted lower Monday and wiped more than 70 pips into the close. This positions the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 back in the frame, with a break here underscoring demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Friday unearthed a reasonably well-presented Japanese shooting star candlestick pattern, viewed as a bearish reversal signal. Interestingly, the pattern formed off the lower boundary of supply at 1.1057/1.1013, joined with a trendline support-turned resistance (1.0635), a 61.8% Fib level at 1.0989 and a Fib ext. level from 1.0987.
As shown on the chart, price action had little trouble pressing lower Monday, reaching 1.0906/1.0878, a supply-turned demand area. Ongoing downside from this angle would absorb bids from current demand and shift focus in the direction of a trendline resistance-turned support (1.1147).
H1 timeframe:
As the US dollar index put in a stronger-than-expected recovery from daily demand at 98.18/98.65, EUR/USD found itself under pressure Monday. Intraday flow toppled 1.0950, swiftly retested the base as resistance and subsequently made its way towards 1.09. Residing close by is the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0908 and a trendline support (1.0727). Beyond this region we also have demand plotted at 1.0842/1.0857, which happens to intersect with 1.0850.
Structures of Interest:
1.09 on the H1 timeframe could firm out today, largely as a result of H4 demand at 1.0906/1.0878, monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912 and additional support in the form of a H1 trendline. A H1 close above the 100-period SMA would help confirm interest from buyers and may pull for at least the 1.0950 base.
כתב ויתור
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