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EURUSD: Bears are out hunting

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This is one of those occasions when it is better to listen to Mr. Market then try rationalize what Mr. Market is saying. Couple of bearish signs for the EURUSD:

in the immediate timeframe, the EURUSD has broken down from a channel formation with a downside target of 1.12 (c.-70bps)


*Channels are generally continuation patterns so the medium term outlook would be an ABCD completion from the Feb'18 peak of 1.25. Implied downside target is 1.09 (c.-340bps) which suggest a retest of the 2015 to 2017 congestion/trough.


*The retest of the 2015 to 2017 congestion zone would be crucial for the EURUSD as the Feb'18 peak bounced off a ultra long-term downtrend line from 2003. A breakdown from the congestion zone would imply significant downside risk as the Feb'18 peak was a 61.8% retracement from Apr'14 peak at 1.38.

Again, it is not going to be a straight line nor is it a certainty. I think Bill Gross once said "find a wave and surf it". Happy hunting.

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