Looking for longs around the 1.05/1.0518 neighborhood...
Weekly gain/loss: - 104 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.0554
Weekly view: The past week saw the shared currency range over 350 pips. Amid this volatility, the candle whipsawed through a long-term trendline resistance extended from the low 0.8231, a resistance at 1.0819 and ultimately struck the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873 to the pip. This barrier, with the help of the ECB extending its program (although at a slower pace), rotated price to the downside and closed the week just ahead of a support area coming in at 1.0333-1.0502, which can be seen stretching as far back as 1997!
Daily view: In conjunction with weekly price, the EUR is also seen trading just ahead of a support level at 1.0520 (extends as far back as Apr 2015) and a neighboring Quasimodo support drawn from 1.0494. Given both the weekly and daily support structures in sight, we feel selling interest could diminish in the days ahead.
H4 view: Summing up Friday’s trade on the H4 shows price sold off mid-way through the London morning segment, consequently breaking through both the 1.06 handle and December’s opening level at 1.0590, as well as eventually (bolstered by a stronger-than-expected US consumer data) the H4 mid-way support at 1.0550. The week, as you can see, ended with the H4 pulling back and edging just slightly back above the 1.0550 point.
Direction for the week: As mentioned in the daily section, we feel selling interest could diminish in the days ahead. Our expectation, therefore, is to see a rebound take shape from the 1.05 region this week.
Direction for today: Positioned below the H4 mid-way support 1.0550 is a H4 Quasimodo support coming in at 1.0518, followed closely by the 1.05 handle. It is in between this area (green zone) we feel price will be drawn to today and likely bounce from.
Our suggestions: Buying from the above noted H4 buy zone is certainly something traders may want to have noted in their watchlists today. However, let’s bear in mind that there’s a daily Quasimodo support at 1.0494 running just beneath this area, hence a fakeout could be on the cards. For that reason, we would recommend waiting for at least a H4 bull candle to form this section before taking the plunge and buying.
In the event that the bulls manage to find a foothold above 1.0550, however, buying from here is not something we would feel comfortable participating in. This is simply due to the fact that the higher-timeframe structures show room for the major to decline in value down to at least the 1.0520 mark: the daily support level.
Data points to consider: There are no high-impacting news events on the docket today relating to these two markets.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 1.05/1.0518 (reasonably sized H4 bullish close required prior to pulling the trigger, stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
Weekly closing price: 1.0554
Weekly view: The past week saw the shared currency range over 350 pips. Amid this volatility, the candle whipsawed through a long-term trendline resistance extended from the low 0.8231, a resistance at 1.0819 and ultimately struck the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873 to the pip. This barrier, with the help of the ECB extending its program (although at a slower pace), rotated price to the downside and closed the week just ahead of a support area coming in at 1.0333-1.0502, which can be seen stretching as far back as 1997!
Daily view: In conjunction with weekly price, the EUR is also seen trading just ahead of a support level at 1.0520 (extends as far back as Apr 2015) and a neighboring Quasimodo support drawn from 1.0494. Given both the weekly and daily support structures in sight, we feel selling interest could diminish in the days ahead.
H4 view: Summing up Friday’s trade on the H4 shows price sold off mid-way through the London morning segment, consequently breaking through both the 1.06 handle and December’s opening level at 1.0590, as well as eventually (bolstered by a stronger-than-expected US consumer data) the H4 mid-way support at 1.0550. The week, as you can see, ended with the H4 pulling back and edging just slightly back above the 1.0550 point.
Direction for the week: As mentioned in the daily section, we feel selling interest could diminish in the days ahead. Our expectation, therefore, is to see a rebound take shape from the 1.05 region this week.
Direction for today: Positioned below the H4 mid-way support 1.0550 is a H4 Quasimodo support coming in at 1.0518, followed closely by the 1.05 handle. It is in between this area (green zone) we feel price will be drawn to today and likely bounce from.
Our suggestions: Buying from the above noted H4 buy zone is certainly something traders may want to have noted in their watchlists today. However, let’s bear in mind that there’s a daily Quasimodo support at 1.0494 running just beneath this area, hence a fakeout could be on the cards. For that reason, we would recommend waiting for at least a H4 bull candle to form this section before taking the plunge and buying.
In the event that the bulls manage to find a foothold above 1.0550, however, buying from here is not something we would feel comfortable participating in. This is simply due to the fact that the higher-timeframe structures show room for the major to decline in value down to at least the 1.0520 mark: the daily support level.
Data points to consider: There are no high-impacting news events on the docket today relating to these two markets.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 1.05/1.0518 (reasonably sized H4 bullish close required prior to pulling the trigger, stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
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