EURUSD: PCE, FOMC and ECB in one week
There has not been much of the currently important data posted during the previous week for the US. The S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for January reached the level of 52,4, which was a bit below market expectations of 55,3. At the same time, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash for January was holding better from market expectations at the level of 50,1, while the market was expecting to see the figure of 49,7. Existing Home Sales in December were higher by 2,2% compared to the previous month, significantly higher from forecasted 0,3%. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for December reached the level of 71,1, and was a bit lower from expected 73,2. At the same time, five years inflation expectations reached a bit elevated level at 3.2% from the previous post of 3%.
The Producers Price Index for December in Germany dropped by -0,1% for the month, significantly below market consensus at 0,3%. The same indicator reached the level of 0,8% on a yearly basis in December. The ZEW Economic Sentiment index reached 10,3 in January for Germany, again below market expectations of 15,3. The Consumer Confidence flash for January in the Euro Zone reached a negative value of -14,2, but was in line with market consensus. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash in January for Germany reached the level of 44,1, which was a bit above forecasted 42,7. At the same time, the HCOB Composite PMI flash for January within the Euro Zone held above the level of 50 , reaching 50,1, which was above market expectations of 48,2.
Although there has not been too much currently important macro data posted during the previous week, certainly the main event was the inauguration of the new US President. The markets were closely watching this event in order to obtain information regarding the fulfillment of all pre-election promises, mostly related to tariffs to China and the crypto industry. There were no negative surprises on this side, so the markets continued to price financial assets with their current expectations. Two weeks ago, the eurusd currency pair reached its lowest level at 1,02 and from this point started its short term reversal to the upside. It reverted back toward the 1,04 resistance line, which was tested as of the end of the week. The highest weekly level reached was 1,05, however, this level was tested only shortly on Friday. The RSI reached the level of 60, leaving some further space until a clear overbought market side is reached. The moving average of 50 days is slowing down its divergence from MA200, but is still not ready to start the convergence path.
The week ahead will be the second most important week in January, as both the ECB and the Fed will decide on reference interest rates. The market is currently set positively that the ECB might continue with rate cuts, while the same could not be said for the Fed. The market expectations are on the side that Fed might hold interest rates at current level at least till the end of Q1. Anyway, the week ahead is going to be full of macro data, central bank decisions, in which sense, some volatility might be expected. Fundamentals will shape the market sentiment this week. As per current charts, the eurusd will start the week ahead by testing 1,04 level. There is also indication that the currency pair might continue to catch higher grounds, in which sense, levels above 1,05 might be tested. At this moment, charts are not pointing toward some higher probability that the currency pair might return toward 1,03.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Ifo Business Climate and Ifo Current Conditions for January in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for February, GDP Growth Rate flash for Q4 in Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone and in Germany, ECB Interest Rate Decision, Inflation rate preliminary in Germany in January,
USD: New Home Sales for December, Durable Goods Orders for December, FED Interest Rate Decision and press conference after the FOMC meeting, GDP Growth Rate for Q4, PCE Price Index for December, Personal Consumption and Personal Spending
The Producers Price Index for December in Germany dropped by -0,1% for the month, significantly below market consensus at 0,3%. The same indicator reached the level of 0,8% on a yearly basis in December. The ZEW Economic Sentiment index reached 10,3 in January for Germany, again below market expectations of 15,3. The Consumer Confidence flash for January in the Euro Zone reached a negative value of -14,2, but was in line with market consensus. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash in January for Germany reached the level of 44,1, which was a bit above forecasted 42,7. At the same time, the HCOB Composite PMI flash for January within the Euro Zone held above the level of 50 , reaching 50,1, which was above market expectations of 48,2.
Although there has not been too much currently important macro data posted during the previous week, certainly the main event was the inauguration of the new US President. The markets were closely watching this event in order to obtain information regarding the fulfillment of all pre-election promises, mostly related to tariffs to China and the crypto industry. There were no negative surprises on this side, so the markets continued to price financial assets with their current expectations. Two weeks ago, the eurusd currency pair reached its lowest level at 1,02 and from this point started its short term reversal to the upside. It reverted back toward the 1,04 resistance line, which was tested as of the end of the week. The highest weekly level reached was 1,05, however, this level was tested only shortly on Friday. The RSI reached the level of 60, leaving some further space until a clear overbought market side is reached. The moving average of 50 days is slowing down its divergence from MA200, but is still not ready to start the convergence path.
The week ahead will be the second most important week in January, as both the ECB and the Fed will decide on reference interest rates. The market is currently set positively that the ECB might continue with rate cuts, while the same could not be said for the Fed. The market expectations are on the side that Fed might hold interest rates at current level at least till the end of Q1. Anyway, the week ahead is going to be full of macro data, central bank decisions, in which sense, some volatility might be expected. Fundamentals will shape the market sentiment this week. As per current charts, the eurusd will start the week ahead by testing 1,04 level. There is also indication that the currency pair might continue to catch higher grounds, in which sense, levels above 1,05 might be tested. At this moment, charts are not pointing toward some higher probability that the currency pair might return toward 1,03.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Ifo Business Climate and Ifo Current Conditions for January in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for February, GDP Growth Rate flash for Q4 in Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone and in Germany, ECB Interest Rate Decision, Inflation rate preliminary in Germany in January,
USD: New Home Sales for December, Durable Goods Orders for December, FED Interest Rate Decision and press conference after the FOMC meeting, GDP Growth Rate for Q4, PCE Price Index for December, Personal Consumption and Personal Spending
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כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.