Thoughts on recent EUR/USD moves...
In recent news, US inflation data reported a hotter-than-expected month, instantly sending the single currency lower and dollar higher. In spite of this the pair was unable to hold its bearish tone, and reversed immediate losses in a matter of minutes from just ahead of August’s opening level pegged at 1.1830.
For those who follow our analysis regularly you may recall that 1.1830 was labeled a high-probability buy zone on Thursday. Not only is the number positioned a few pips above daily demand at 1.1739-1.1823, it also converged with a H4 AB=CD bullish formation (see black arrows). Well done to anyone who managed to get on board this move – we unfortunately missed it since 1.1830 was never filled.
Technically speaking, we believe the recent upside move is likely due to weekly buyers flooding the market from support at 1.1871, and dollar sellers chomping lower from weekly resistance at 11854.
Suggestions: Near-term action shows H4 price trading marginally above September’s opening line at 1.1913. While this potentially clears upside to at least the mid-level resistance 1.1950, traders may want to note that USDX H4 candles are trading from demand (a push higher from here could send the EUR lower). Overall however, we still feel upside is the more likely route given the technicals on the EUR along with its underlying trend. Be that as it may, longing this market with 1.1950 so close is not something our team is willing to commit to at this time.
Data points to consider: US Retail sales figures at 1.30pm; US Prelim UoM Consumer report at 3pm GMT+1.
For those who follow our analysis regularly you may recall that 1.1830 was labeled a high-probability buy zone on Thursday. Not only is the number positioned a few pips above daily demand at 1.1739-1.1823, it also converged with a H4 AB=CD bullish formation (see black arrows). Well done to anyone who managed to get on board this move – we unfortunately missed it since 1.1830 was never filled.
Technically speaking, we believe the recent upside move is likely due to weekly buyers flooding the market from support at 1.1871, and dollar sellers chomping lower from weekly resistance at 11854.
Suggestions: Near-term action shows H4 price trading marginally above September’s opening line at 1.1913. While this potentially clears upside to at least the mid-level resistance 1.1950, traders may want to note that USDX H4 candles are trading from demand (a push higher from here could send the EUR lower). Overall however, we still feel upside is the more likely route given the technicals on the EUR along with its underlying trend. Be that as it may, longing this market with 1.1950 so close is not something our team is willing to commit to at this time.
Data points to consider: US Retail sales figures at 1.30pm; US Prelim UoM Consumer report at 3pm GMT+1.
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