EUR/USD LONG TERM ANALYSIS (A PASSABLE BULLISH MOVE TO COME)

1 באוג׳ 2016

On the monthly chart of the Euro - Dollar, a longer term outlook I've spotted a few key factors that might point to some bullish months to come. I will start by pointing out the long term uptrend that started from the low in 2000 @0.8231 to the high in 2008 @1.1619 From 2008 to the end of 2014 price was consolidating trading in a multi year symmetrical triangle which broke Dec 2014 on the dollar bull run. In March 2015 price made a new multi year low @1.0462 This low also held as support on November 2015. What's interesting is that once price broke below the 618 retracement of the 2000 low to the high in 2008 On a monthly close basses that 618 retracement held as support for all of 2015. In march of this year we finally had a close above that retracement, A bullish move. Monthly RSI printed divergence in the lows of March 2015 and the test of those lows in November 2015 Bullish RSI move. We did however in may of this year reverse and closed out the month back below that 618 retracement Where we have yet to close back above it. Normally on a break of a symmetrical triangle you would look for a retracement back to the level it broke or the triangles apex. In this case mabie a push up to 1.200 passably a little higher.

This hypothesis is based solely on longer term technicals and does not factor in the fundamental state of these 2 economies. Also to note is that we are testing the yearly opening range which if it holds could see price make another run for the upside before the end of this year.

Note:

• Watch for a monthly close above the 618 retracement of the low in 2000 to the high in 2008.
  
• June was somewhat of indosition with the monthly candle as a Doji.
  
• Last month, July failed to pierce through June's low then closed positive for the month.
  
• I don't want to see price break last months July's lows @1.0951 And I really want to see price on a closed bases above 1.10 For a bullish long term move higher
  
• Watch RSI trend line could provide bullish momentum resistance.
  
• RSI made strong divergence in last year's lows.