EURUSD: USD gain on a jobs data
The US nonfarm payrolls were in the focus of the market attention during the previous week. Posted figure of 254K added jobs in September surprised the market, which was expecting to see 140K. Average hourly earnings were higher by 0,4% in September, bringing it to the level of 4,0% on a yearly basis. Figures were higher from market consensus. The unemployment rate dropped down to 4.1% in September from 4,2% in August. The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained relatively flat in September, at the level of 47,2 which is the same level where the index was standing in August. The ISM Services PMI index reached 54,9 September, much higher from market consensus at 51,7.
Preliminary inflation rate in Germany for September surprised the market, with a significant drop to the level of 1,6% y/y, from the previous level of 1,9%. At the same time easing of inflation continues also within the Euro Area, where preliminary inflation in September reached the level of 1,8% y/y, down from 2,2% posted in August. Core inflation continues to be elevated, at the level of 2,7% in September. Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone remained flat in August at the level of 6,4%. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Area was standing at 0,6% for the month in august, bringing the index to the level of -2,3% on a yearly basis.
The US non-farm payrolls data and dropping unemployment rate pushed the USD to the higher grounds at Friday's trading session. At the start of the week the eurusd currency pair was testing the 1,12 resistance line, but without strength to pass this level, the currency pair reverted to the downside for the rest of the week. The currency pair is ending the week at the level of 1,097, after reaching the lowest weekly level at 1,095. The RSI turned to the downside, reaching the lowest level at 39, however, the clear oversold market side has not been reached. Moving average of 50 days continued to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the cross might come in the near future period.
The level of 1,10 has not been clearly tested during the previous week, which leaves space for the market to test it in a week ahead. As per current sentiment, there is a low probability that this level might be crossed to the upside, in which sense, some further move to the downside is highly probable. The markets will need some time to digest the latest US jobs data, and considering that there are no currently significant macro data set for a release in a week ahead, some stronger moves to either side are highly unlikely. The level of 1,095 might be tested for one more time.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Retail Sales in the Euro Zone for August, Industrial Production in Germany in August, Balance of Trade in August in Germany, Inflation Rate in Germany in September.
USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes, Inflation Rate in September, Producers Price Index in September, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for October.
Preliminary inflation rate in Germany for September surprised the market, with a significant drop to the level of 1,6% y/y, from the previous level of 1,9%. At the same time easing of inflation continues also within the Euro Area, where preliminary inflation in September reached the level of 1,8% y/y, down from 2,2% posted in August. Core inflation continues to be elevated, at the level of 2,7% in September. Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone remained flat in August at the level of 6,4%. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Area was standing at 0,6% for the month in august, bringing the index to the level of -2,3% on a yearly basis.
The US non-farm payrolls data and dropping unemployment rate pushed the USD to the higher grounds at Friday's trading session. At the start of the week the eurusd currency pair was testing the 1,12 resistance line, but without strength to pass this level, the currency pair reverted to the downside for the rest of the week. The currency pair is ending the week at the level of 1,097, after reaching the lowest weekly level at 1,095. The RSI turned to the downside, reaching the lowest level at 39, however, the clear oversold market side has not been reached. Moving average of 50 days continued to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the cross might come in the near future period.
The level of 1,10 has not been clearly tested during the previous week, which leaves space for the market to test it in a week ahead. As per current sentiment, there is a low probability that this level might be crossed to the upside, in which sense, some further move to the downside is highly probable. The markets will need some time to digest the latest US jobs data, and considering that there are no currently significant macro data set for a release in a week ahead, some stronger moves to either side are highly unlikely. The level of 1,095 might be tested for one more time.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Retail Sales in the Euro Zone for August, Industrial Production in Germany in August, Balance of Trade in August in Germany, Inflation Rate in Germany in September.
USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes, Inflation Rate in September, Producers Price Index in September, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for October.
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