Short momentum in play

15 באוק׳ 2016

As we broke below the trendline from june, the floor below has open up. Momentum has gained power and I suspect that we could see a swift trip down into lower levels. The break and following test of the trendline was also a weak retracement (only 38,2% retracement from the 1.1203 previous high) indicating that we have a strong bear in the works. Also ending friday at the lows of the day, strong bearish weekly candle gives more meat to the hungry bear. First minor bounce will be at 1.0921 level, but it could be that it will go straight thru that level and not really pause before we hit 1.0837 level. After a minor bounce we should target 1.0700 level and all this could happen this upcomming week. I will NOT look for longs as it is right now.

17 באוק׳ 2016

הערה

Adding to shorts now up to DP at 1.1000, just waiting for london to get online and hopefully push it down.

18 באוק׳ 2016

הערה

Yesterday we had a up day and i was not expecting it to last all day. My scenario was that momentum would pick up again and selling would resume.
During this asian session they pushed it even higher, could have been a shortsqueeze, but still, it makes me a bit careful. I still have to remain bearish as we did break the trendline, but 1.0700 level this week now looks weak, i will move this outlook forward to next week as they now have showed that they most likely will bounce on every major level on the way down. The area between 1.0920--1.0950 will be a cluster along with 1.0835-1.0850. But still bearish overall, but momentum is not as strong as i thought.

18 באוק׳ 2016

הערה

Could be that we will hover around 1.1000 larger part of the day untill options expiries at 10 NY time.. forgot about that one.