EUR/USD - break higher above 1.14 may catch traders off-guard

EUR/USD would appear overbought relative to its range since the start of 2015. But we can't ignore the fact that this the third time price is knocking on the ceiling of 1.12-1.15. We will be watching for a consolidation near these highs as a sign of a break higher. The catalyst will likely be a combination of improving European earnings, declining US earnings (more likely) or faster than expected tightening in Europe.