EURUSD bullish ABCD retrace, or prior low retest?
מעודכן
Last Thursday, 7 Mar, EURUSD made a climactic selloff (ECB news) to finish a 235-pip drop from 28 Feb price of 1.1420. You can see here price nailed a lower lows falling trendline (from 24 Jan), overshooting by 7 pips. I informally rate my support/resistance tests by the error versus maximum size of move. In this case, 7/235 pips is a 3.00% error on a roughly 4*ATR daily move. I do my best to be skeptical of any random SR price level or trendline, but 97% accuracy would be a grade even an Asian parent could grudgingly accept (I should know, right? :D ).
But that's all old news. Right now during early Asian session for the week, price is looking for support between 1.1205-1.1230, which is the 1-hour retrace swing during Thursday's big drop. If support holds here, I'd look for an ABCD retrace off the 1.1176 low, with the 100% target at 1.1293. The ABCD was drawn blind, INDEPENDENT of the untested H1 falling trendline (yellow solid line), but found confluence within 3 pips at projected 100% target D of the ABCD time+price measured move.
It's a tidy little exercise in technical analysis connect-the-dots, but in case it's utter rubbish, other long trade targets for the retrace are based off prior lows/highs and price ranges:
1.1285
1.1305
1.1320
MORE LIKELY however, I think the ABCD will fail early around 1.1256-58. Why? The AB leg of the possible ABCD is approx 70 pips, so a 35-pip 50% target would be 1.1258. Then I'll look for price to retest the 1.1176 low.
Chart is a little messy with lines, but it's intended for intraday M1 , M5 use. Yellow lines are drawn on H1 timeframe, brown lines are drawn on D1 timeframe, light green are lines on W timeframe, and dark green line on M timeframe. The horizontal segments are the Previous Period Levels indicator by JayRogers, to provide support/resistance.
But that's all old news. Right now during early Asian session for the week, price is looking for support between 1.1205-1.1230, which is the 1-hour retrace swing during Thursday's big drop. If support holds here, I'd look for an ABCD retrace off the 1.1176 low, with the 100% target at 1.1293. The ABCD was drawn blind, INDEPENDENT of the untested H1 falling trendline (yellow solid line), but found confluence within 3 pips at projected 100% target D of the ABCD time+price measured move.
It's a tidy little exercise in technical analysis connect-the-dots, but in case it's utter rubbish, other long trade targets for the retrace are based off prior lows/highs and price ranges:
1.1285
1.1305
1.1320
MORE LIKELY however, I think the ABCD will fail early around 1.1256-58. Why? The AB leg of the possible ABCD is approx 70 pips, so a 35-pip 50% target would be 1.1258. Then I'll look for price to retest the 1.1176 low.
Chart is a little messy with lines, but it's intended for intraday M1 , M5 use. Yellow lines are drawn on H1 timeframe, brown lines are drawn on D1 timeframe, light green are lines on W timeframe, and dark green line on M timeframe. The horizontal segments are the Previous Period Levels indicator by JayRogers, to provide support/resistance.
הערה
NOTE: DXY Dollar index is in a retrace down off of a daily bullish ABCD. With the way it looks, my gut instinct technical analysis tells me to expect an attempt at a 3rd thrust up to retest and possibly make a small break of the prior DXY high, meaning EURUSD could go down.
כתב ויתור
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