EUR/USD daily overview

6 באוג׳ 2018

Downside risks continue to prevail with the EUR/USD exchange rate, thus pushing it lower for the third consecutive session. This short-term depreciation has sent the Euro to a new one-month low at 1.1560. This mark is likewise close to a one-year low located near 1.15.

Friday’s trading session shows that this weekly decline is starting to allay. This means that a recovery is expected either today or tomorrow. The Euro has to overcome the strong resistance of the 55-hour SMA near 1.16 to fully accelerate against the US Dollar. In this case upside potential is apparent until the weekly R1 at 1.17.

Given that this session is calm in terms of fundamental data releases, the pair may lack the necessary upside momentum to breach the given moving average. Thus, it could fluctuate in the 1.1520/1.1600 range today.

7 באוג׳ 2018

הערה

Due to the lack of outside pressure, Monday’s trading session was relatively calm for the EUR/USD exchange rate, as it remained fluctuating between the 55-hour SMA and a senior channel line. A breakout from this moving average is necessary to consider before going long on the pair.

Given that technical indicators on the 1H and 4H time-frames are starting to show signs of a possible recovery, this confirmation is expected to occur in the nearest time. The most likely upside target during the following days is the 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs near 1.1665.

Meanwhile, the Euro might be reluctant to move past the weekly S1 located at 1.1505, as this is the pair’s lowest position in a year. Thus, even if a surge does not occur today, losses should likewise be limited.

8 באוג׳ 2018

הערה

A reversal from the senior channel and a breakout from a junior one was followed by a 48-pip surge on Tuesday. The Euro managed to push through several resistance levels until the 200-hour SMA at 1.1630 was reached early today.

Given that the 1.1650 area is likewise strengthened by the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs, bulls could be reluctant to push the rate above this resistance cluster. Technical indicators are likewise bearish for this session.

A near-term support target is the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the monthly S1 at 1.1580. If no downside pressure pushes the rate below this mark, it is likely that the Euro trades with low volatility in between the aforementioned barriers today.

9 באוג׳ 2018

הערה

EUR/USD was trading sideways on Wednesday, as any significant leaps were restricted by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs. The weekly PP and the monthly S1 are likewise reinforcing these support/resistance lines.

The lack of outside pressure stopped any attempt of bears and bulls to push the rate past any of these two barriers. As a result, the three-day ascending channel was not breached.

Technical indicators on the 4H time-frame are tended northwards. However, it is unlikely that large gains occur today, because resistance is strengthened by the 55-, 100– and 200-period SMAs at 1.1650.

Taking this factor into account, the bearish pressure should dominate the pair today and consequently send the Euro closer to its one-year low against the US Dollar at 1.1510.

10 באוג׳ 2018

הערה

The Euro failed to overcome the strong resistance of the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.1625 on Thursday morning. This increased the bearish pressure which in turn pushed the rate down to the senior channel and a one-year low at 1.1520.

Even this significant support level was helpless early on Friday when investors started to short the Euro in the wake of ECB comments on EU banks’ exposure to the weak Turkish Lira. The pair plunged 0.65% within three hours. Two support levels that could halt this plunge are the weekly S2 or the monthly S3 at 1.1440 and 1.1365, accordingly.

Given that the pair is strongly oversold now, bulls may try to take over the market later in the day; however, it should be noted that the above fundamentals are still likely to continue pressuring the rate lower.