EUR/USD: Is recent bounce a trend reversal? Or not?

The EUR/USD has been in a downtrend for some time, the attached chart showing the most recent leg from the May'21 highs to late Nov'21 lows. Central Bank activity this week has caused a flurry of activity...first the ECB's hawkish presser which rallied the EUR up to the Fib 23.6% retracement of the May/Nov downtrend, then today's NFP which heightened expectations for more aggressive Fed action starting in March which caused the EUR to rollover from recent highs. The runup off the lows hit some resistance at the Fib 23.6% which happens to be the 100dma. Shorts, caught by the unexpected LaGarde hawkishness, may still not be done covering, which could put enough wind in the EUR's sails to test the Fib 38.2% above @ approx 1.1600 or the 200dma @ 1.1680. But the real trade here is the Central Bank policy divergence which is likely to favor more hawkishness from the Fed than from the ECB. The ECB will be handcuffed in raising rates too quickly largely because yields in fiscally less strong economies will ratchet higher. Take note of Italian BTPs which have already begun widening on spread to Bunds. Ultimately, this ought to favor a stronger USD and a weaker EUR.