Fastenal Companyלונג
Long FAST @ 80.32 - because the odds are in my favor
מעודכן
I don't care what your trading strategy is. In the end, if you're going to be successful at trading, it's about putting the odds in your favor. In my case, I like to put the odds WAYYYYYY in my favor.
FAST is one of my top stocks. Out of over 1,000 trades going back to the month before Black Monday in 1987, it has only produced 3 "losing" trades, and they'd all have been opened in the last 7 days. That's well above
a 99% win rate.
The AVERAGE gain on those trades has been 2.21% (excluding the near zero impact of the 3 current losers) and each took on average, just over 2 weeks to complete. On a per day held basis, that's about 4.5x the average daily return of the S&P 500 and includes periods of trading covering Black Monday, the dot.com crash, the Asian currency crisis, the Financial Crisis/Great Recession of 2007-09, and various other extreme market drawdowns.
You can see that during the most recent 3 month drawdown in the stock, I'd have come out ahead, so I'm not particularly concerned that the last couple of weeks have been rough ones for FAST. I would consider the potential closing of the "gap" from a few weeks ago as normal and healthy from a technical perspective and offering price support at the level prior to that gap, as well as from the blue uptrend line.
I never have an absolute guarantee that a trade will make money for me, but this stock is about as close as it gets to that. In fact, it was all I could do not to buy a 4x sized lot to cover the 3 trades I could have made that I didn't because I was maxed out on the number of positions in my portfolio or chose stocks with even better risk/return statistics than this one. If it goes down another day, I may just do that. I'll obviously note it here if I do.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add at the close on any day it is still a "buy" and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
FAST is one of my top stocks. Out of over 1,000 trades going back to the month before Black Monday in 1987, it has only produced 3 "losing" trades, and they'd all have been opened in the last 7 days. That's well above a 99% win rate.
The AVERAGE gain on those trades has been 2.21% (excluding the near zero impact of the 3 current losers) and each took on average, just over 2 weeks to complete. On a per day held basis, that's about 4.5x the average daily return of the S&P 500 and includes periods of trading covering Black Monday, the dot.com crash, the Asian currency crisis, the Financial Crisis/Great Recession of 2007-09, and various other extreme market drawdowns.
You can see that during the most recent 3 month drawdown in the stock, I'd have come out ahead, so I'm not particularly concerned that the last couple of weeks have been rough ones for FAST. I would consider the potential closing of the "gap" from a few weeks ago as normal and healthy from a technical perspective and offering price support at the level prior to that gap, as well as from the blue uptrend line.
I never have an absolute guarantee that a trade will make money for me, but this stock is about as close as it gets to that. In fact, it was all I could do not to buy a 4x sized lot to cover the 3 trades I could have made that I didn't because I was maxed out on the number of positions in my portfolio or chose stocks with even better risk/return statistics than this one. If it goes down another day, I may just do that. I'll obviously note it here if I do.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add at the close on any day it is still a "buy" and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
עסקה פעילה
Added a second lot at 79.69 just before the close today.
Lots currently held:
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
הערה
Added lot 3 at the close for 79.26. Only down around 0.6% on the position as a whole right now and still above gap and trend line support.
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
הערה
7 consecutive down days. I'm about ready to start using calls instead of stock buys because this streak has to end pretty soon. Anyway, bought another lot at 79.04.
Lots held
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
הערה
Officially the longest losing streak for this stock since 2018 👏👏👏👏. So lucky I could be a part of it 🤮 If it's down on Monday too, that will be REAL history. There are people on this site that weren't even alive the last time that happened...
Anyway, bought again at 79.49 before the close because 5 is a party. Have a good weekend! Glad this week is over. 👎
Lots held
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
הערה
Down 9 days in a row and 12 of the last 13. Did I miss something? Were they caught selling nuclear secrets or something? At least I didn't get in until about halfway down...Added another lot at 78.13 at the close.
Lots held
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
הערה
Welcome back to 2002 everyone!! The last time FAST had a losing streak this long George W. Bush was in the White House, 9/11 had happened barely a year earlier, My Big Fat Greek Wedding was #1 at the box office, and Avril Lavigne's "Complicated" was the #1 song. People still watched TV and read newspapers, too LOL. The remarkable thing about this trade is that after 7 straight down days since I entered, I'm only down an average of about 1.7% per lot. That's sort of amazing. Anyway, I don't know what the record streak is for FAST and I don't want to find out. Here's hoping for a huge up day tomorrow and closing this whole trade out in a day. That would be a nice Christmas present.
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
הערה
Sorry for the late update but I was traveling yesterday and just too tired and busy last night to deal with this. I added at the close at 74.65
Lots held:
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 8 - 74.65
הערה
For anyone who reads this - the next time you want to go all in when that voice in your head tells you "it can't keep going down...it HAS to go up" I want you to remember this trade. Stocks can ALWAYS keep going up or keep going down. The odds get longer each time they do, but stocks defy odds all the time. This 12 consecutive down days streak is an anomaly, but obviously not impossible.
Added again at the close today at 74.10
Lots held:
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 8 - 74.65
Lot 9 - 74.10
הערה
Sold Lots 8 and 9 at the close at 74.82.
Lot 8 : +0.23% in 2 days
Lot 9: +0.97% in 1 day
Lots still held:
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
הערה
Buy signal again at the close so I bought another lot a few seconds before the close at 72.97
Lots still held:
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 10 - 72.97
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