Results of the week, dollar, gold, ruble and oil

8 ביולי 2019

Let’s summarize the previous week. It began with the G20 summit outcome announcement, namely, Trump and discussed possible resolutions to the trade war that's dragged on between the world's two largest economies. The OPEC extends production cuts for 9 months, The non-farm payroll (NFP) released surprisingly positive figures in its report. But to say that, clarity reigns in the financial markets we cannot. The US and China negotiations do not guarantee anything, Trump still institutes a dollar devaluation policy.

Actually, watching the gold dynamics last week, it is easy to understand that the markets are not sure about anything. Daily spikes in gold price ( 30-40 dollars ) is a testament to that. Well, the maximum daily maximum increase over the past three years shows that nothing has been decided yet. As a result, many analysts continue to “bet” on the gold growth in the future. Considering the strongest uncertainty, we still adhere to neutrality in matters of gold trading. Today we tend to buy gold on the intraday basis - its current price seems too attractive.

The OPEC influence is mitigated, but oil production in the United States continues to set new records, changing the layouts on the oil market and forming a new market reality. Our position on oil - look for points for its sales, we set positions with fairly rigid stops.

We were pleasantly surprised by the United States Non-Farm Payrolls + 244K. beating market expectations of 160 thousand. The markets still believe in a rate cut, but after Friday, a few people bet on 0.5% rate cut, right away.
Weak figures would be the final verdict to the dollar. Against the background of such statistics, the Central Bank has many options. So, We look forward to hearing the Jerome Paella.

We are waiting for another major event Bank of Canada meeting results. In general, the markets do not expect any surprises, but comments with instructions on changing the vector of monetary policy are possible. So in pair with the Canadian dollar might be volatile on Wednesday

Russia's Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina said that Bank of Russia will reduce the rate by 0.5% The ruble naturally experienced weakness and declined in the foreign exchange market. We recommend its sales.

We will continue to look for points for dollar sales. Gold price falling on Friday, we will use it as an opportunity for its purchases. We sell USDJPY. Medium-term pounds purchases look attractive. we will begin to build up a long-term position with EURUSD. In addition, we will sell the Russian ruble, as well as oil.