News background and trading ideas for 11/01/2019

11 בינו׳ 2019

Yesterday in the foreign exchange market was even more boring than Wednesday. Trump continues to make smoke come out of both Democrats and Republicans ears. When because of one’s man caprices 800 000 of public officials will not receive their salaries, it will not make happy the lawmakers, who have to represent the interests of the electorate. We continue to follow with keen interest how Trump is pulling the tiger by the tail and how it will end in the end. It is hardly something good for the dollar, so we still recommend looking for points for intraday sales. Yesterday Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the current position of the Central Bank, precisely, the Fed’s extreme caution when making decisions.

China continues to frustrate investors around the world. The other day, the Celestial Empire reported a drop in car sales in the country. For the first time in two decades. So, you shouldn’t rely much on improving forecasts for global economic growth. Amid this background, our idea of buying gold continues to be relevant, and you can buy both within the day and in the mid-term. Current prices are far from extremely high.

News from the UK about Brexit continues to be dismal. May again failed in Parliament. But before the time "X" is already quite a bit - the vote on the agreement about exit from the European Union should be held on January 15. Yesterday, the deputies ruled to have Teresa May open her backup plan for leaving the EU within three days if her agreement with Brussels would be rejected in Parliament next week. That is the option of the failure of the vote is seen as a basic or at least claiming to wish. Despite such adverse news, we continue to recommend buying a pound. The worst case scenario is already taken into account in the price, that is, there is nowhere to fall. Accordingly, any positive triggers a sharp increase in the pound. Do not either forget that the postponement from March 29 to a later date is on the agenda. And if earlier these were guesses and rumors, then yesterday the Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz quite officially announced this.

Oil yesterday halted its growth, despite the preferably optimistic statements by the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia, who said that OPEC+ could rebalance the market. This information was indirectly confirmed by data from Oil Movements: the supply of OPEC oil up to January 26 will be reduced by 390 thousand to 26.34 million barrels per day for four weeks (forecasts are based on an analysis of the movement of oil tankers).

The company specializes in forecasts of future sea lane oil based on its own tracking system of oil tankers movement. But markets are too scared about the other side of the market conditions - the oil demand, which growth it’s a big “if” amid of concerns about a slowdown in the world economy. Our position is unchanged - looking for points for mid-term oil sales.

Among our other ideas, will mark the feasibility of the Russian ruble sales, as well purchases of Japanese yen.

Today promises to be rich on the macroeconomic statistics: here both UK GDP and inflation data from the United States. So, it will be fun, volatile, and most of all, it’s a good day for trading.