Chance for 100 bip short

I thing that we reached the point where we can be 75 % sure that we will go down. I see 2 ways to reach 1.593
1 we will manage to reach 1.605 or we will start going down from 1.604...

i will enter now short setting my SL above 1.606 so i will have a Risk-Reward ratio of 0.33