Gold surged to nearly $3,500, but multiple indicators now point to a potential top. A short-term correction or consolidation phase appears likely before any new highs.
Bearish Signals Across the Board:
RSI Divergence: RSI failed to confirm recent highs, showing bearish divergence.
Momentum Fading: MACD & momentum oscillators rolled over → rally exhaustion.
Volume Shift: Rising on down moves, drying up on rallies → classic distribution.
Bearish Candlesticks: Spinning tops + bearish engulfing patterns signal reversal risk.
Elliott Wave: Likely completed 5-wave impulse → next up: ABC correction?
Cycles: April top aligns with intermediate cycle peak → watch May for cycle low.
Seasonality: Historically weak May–June period approaching.
COT Data: Speculators still long, but commercials heavily short → caution warranted.
🎯 Trade Setups
Short-Term (1–5 Days)
🎯 Short Entry: ~$3,400
📉 Target: $3,270 → $3,215
🛑 Stop: Above $3,460
Medium-Term (1–4 Weeks)
📉 Short below $3,215 → Target $2,970
✅ Or go long on confirmed bounce at $3,150–$3,180
Long-Term (1–6 Months)
🟢 Bullish bias after correction completes
🛒 Buy zones: $2,960–$2,720
🎯 Targets: $3,540 → $3,900+
⛔ Stop: Below $2,700
🧭 Outlook Summary:
Bias: Cautiously Bearish (short-term) → Bullish (long-term)
Gold likely topped in April — expect weakness or sideways action before the next major leg higher. Be patient for a better buying opportunity later this spring/summer.
Bearish Signals Across the Board:
RSI Divergence: RSI failed to confirm recent highs, showing bearish divergence.
Momentum Fading: MACD & momentum oscillators rolled over → rally exhaustion.
Volume Shift: Rising on down moves, drying up on rallies → classic distribution.
Bearish Candlesticks: Spinning tops + bearish engulfing patterns signal reversal risk.
Elliott Wave: Likely completed 5-wave impulse → next up: ABC correction?
Cycles: April top aligns with intermediate cycle peak → watch May for cycle low.
Seasonality: Historically weak May–June period approaching.
COT Data: Speculators still long, but commercials heavily short → caution warranted.
🎯 Trade Setups
Short-Term (1–5 Days)
🎯 Short Entry: ~$3,400
📉 Target: $3,270 → $3,215
🛑 Stop: Above $3,460
Medium-Term (1–4 Weeks)
📉 Short below $3,215 → Target $2,970
✅ Or go long on confirmed bounce at $3,150–$3,180
Long-Term (1–6 Months)
🟢 Bullish bias after correction completes
🛒 Buy zones: $2,960–$2,720
🎯 Targets: $3,540 → $3,900+
⛔ Stop: Below $2,700
🧭 Outlook Summary:
Bias: Cautiously Bearish (short-term) → Bullish (long-term)
Gold likely topped in April — expect weakness or sideways action before the next major leg higher. Be patient for a better buying opportunity later this spring/summer.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.