Gold - (XAUUSD) – FOMC Week Setup

🟡 Hello Goldies,

Gold enters the final week of October at a macro crossroads — bullish structure intact, but clearly overextended..

📆 FOMC Rate Decision (Wed) → 25 bps cut already priced in, but Powell’s tone will make or break momentum.

🕊️ Dovish = continuation into premium zones
🦅 Hawkish = tactical pullback

📊 US GDP & Core PCE (Thu)
Strong data → USD strength → short-term gold pressure
Softer inflation → opens door for bullish re-expansion

💡 Bottom line: It’s not about the rate — it’s about the narrative.

Weekly Bias
The broader structure stays bullish, but premium fatigue is now visible.
Repeated upper wicks between 4250–4380 suggest exhaustion within the extended rally.
RSI remains deep in overbought territory.
EMAs (5 > 21 > 50 > 100 > 200) hold bullish alignment yet look overstretched.
→ Bias: Bullish macro, vulnerable to tactical correction.
→ Context: Momentum persists, but liquidity tightens on both sides.

Key Structural Zones
🔺 Premium Supply (HTF)
4250–4380 → Primary reaction zone; early signs of institutional distribution.
4500–4650 → Extension supply; achievable under dovish FOMC tone.

💧 Liquidity Gap
4400–3500 → Broad FVG void; clean structure break could accelerate moves toward deeper demand.

🟩 Discount Demand (HTF)
3435–3200 → First reactive structural demand.
3125–2950 → Deep macro base for long-term accumulation.

⚔️ Decision Pivot
3950–4050 → Weekly control zone; defines Q4 path.
Hold → continuation higher.
Lose → liquidity vacuum opens toward 3500.
Scenarios

Bullish Case:
FOMC cut + dovish tone → Defense of 3950–4050 → reacceleration toward 4250–4650.

Confirmations: H4 BOS >4180, RSI >70, EMA5–21 cross.

Bearish Case:
Hawkish tone or strong USD → break below 3950 → slide through 4400–3500 imbalance.
Confirmations: H4 CHoCH + EMA21 break, RSI divergence.

Conclusion (Weekly)
Gold stands at a macro crossroads — structure intact but stretched.
Ceiling: 4250–4380
Pivot: 3950–4050
Hold pivot → 4500–4650 possible. Lose it → 3500 liquidity sweep in play.


Daily Bias
Still bullish but compressed under EMA5–EMA21 — classic pre-breakout compression.
RSI ~58 → balanced momentum.
→ Bias: Bullish macro, neutral near-term.

Key Zones
Supply: 4185–4260 / 4330–4420 / 4500–4550
Decision: 4060–4120 → daily close above = bullish control.
Demand: 4040–3950 / 3860–3755 / 3640–3515

Setups
Hold 4060–4120 → break 4260 → 4330–4550 target.
Fail 4060–4120 → break 3950 → retrace to 3860–3640.

H4 Bias
Fed tone decides short-term trend:
Dovish: breakout above 4245 → 4350–4390.
Hawkish: rejection → retrace to 3950–3900.

Flow:
5 <21 <50 alignment (local pullback), RSI ~50, EMAs 100–200 at 4020/3906 (strong base).
→ Bias: Neutral short-term, bullish macro.

Key Zones
Supply: 4195–4245 / 4355–4390 / 4455–4510
Decision: 4110–4073 (EMA21 confluence)
Demand: 4045–4000 / 3950–3900 / 3840–3800
Above 4110 → bullish continuation.
Below 4073 → retracement to 3950–3840.

H1 Micro Flow
Still corrective, not reversed.
Price compresses around 4115–4095, rejecting 4200 OB.

Supply: 4205–4185 / 4275–4250 / 4355–4335 / 4405–4385
Demand: 4065–4045 / 4005–3985 / 3920–3895
Decision Zone: 4115–4095 (EMA cluster).
Above 4140 → bullish extension.
Below 4090 → retracement toward 4045–3985.

Summary:
Gold is compressing ahead of the FOMC decision — confirmation matters more than anticipation.
Stay patient; this week decides whether we break 4650 or unwind toward 3500.