Hello Traders,
it is now more than 2 weeks ago, that Hang Seng has made a top @ 30280.12. Since that high, HS is showing further weakness and declined to 29504. This level is near a 0.382 Fibonacci of the move, started @28435, March 26 and traveled to 30280.12 on Monday, April 15!
It is now possible to label the advance from 24540 as a wave ((i)) of Minute degree. I like to show you some facts, of which my statement based on.
1. wave (ii) was either a w-x-y pattern or a „a-b-c-flat“ correction. It is not really important which one developed, it is clear to observe that this decline was a „three-down“;
2. possible wave (iv) shows the structure of a „running-flat“, which is very rare and specific to count. Most traders fail to count this, but it is to my view the most favorable pattern, after a triangle is clear not to see (or any other pattern, showing a „sideways“ structure).
3. note how perfect the blue trendline connect the highs of the advance of waves (i)-(iii) and (v)!
4. in terms of alternation it is also clear to watch, that wave (ii) was a „expanding-flat and took 57 days to develop, while wave (iv) took 22 days (possible a running-flat) and fall shy in a wave „c“ move. Divided the 22 (+1) days and the 57 (+2) Fibonacci days you will get a Fibonacci of 0.386! Nearly perfect!
After the low @ 28435 HS advanced in a „five-up“ to a high at 30280 and declined since. This weakness is now not a clear impulsive move down, and it holds above the open gap @29530 (closing basis) and it is „dancing“ at the 0.382 Fibonacci. As I wrote before, this gap will be filled, if HS is moving lower towards a price target well below levels seen shortterm.
By measuring the total advance (24540-30280) a .382 Fibonacci is at 28087.61. This is a minimum retracement for a correction of larger degree and fits well with the wave „4“ level of the advance.
The alternate view is, that the high at 30280 is wave ((3)) and the decline since is wave ((4)) that possible endet at a 0.382 Fibonacci @ 29504 on Friday and HS will advance to new highs above the 30280 in the coming days!
So, the levels get set, and the coming days will give more clearness to the path we will move time ahead. Closing the gap and moving below the wave ((2)), blue, low at 28558 will give more confidence that a correction ina wave ((ii)) is underway.
Have a great weekend....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
it is now more than 2 weeks ago, that Hang Seng has made a top @ 30280.12. Since that high, HS is showing further weakness and declined to 29504. This level is near a 0.382 Fibonacci of the move, started @28435, March 26 and traveled to 30280.12 on Monday, April 15!
It is now possible to label the advance from 24540 as a wave ((i)) of Minute degree. I like to show you some facts, of which my statement based on.
1. wave (ii) was either a w-x-y pattern or a „a-b-c-flat“ correction. It is not really important which one developed, it is clear to observe that this decline was a „three-down“;
2. possible wave (iv) shows the structure of a „running-flat“, which is very rare and specific to count. Most traders fail to count this, but it is to my view the most favorable pattern, after a triangle is clear not to see (or any other pattern, showing a „sideways“ structure).
3. note how perfect the blue trendline connect the highs of the advance of waves (i)-(iii) and (v)!
4. in terms of alternation it is also clear to watch, that wave (ii) was a „expanding-flat and took 57 days to develop, while wave (iv) took 22 days (possible a running-flat) and fall shy in a wave „c“ move. Divided the 22 (+1) days and the 57 (+2) Fibonacci days you will get a Fibonacci of 0.386! Nearly perfect!
After the low @ 28435 HS advanced in a „five-up“ to a high at 30280 and declined since. This weakness is now not a clear impulsive move down, and it holds above the open gap @29530 (closing basis) and it is „dancing“ at the 0.382 Fibonacci. As I wrote before, this gap will be filled, if HS is moving lower towards a price target well below levels seen shortterm.
By measuring the total advance (24540-30280) a .382 Fibonacci is at 28087.61. This is a minimum retracement for a correction of larger degree and fits well with the wave „4“ level of the advance.
The alternate view is, that the high at 30280 is wave ((3)) and the decline since is wave ((4)) that possible endet at a 0.382 Fibonacci @ 29504 on Friday and HS will advance to new highs above the 30280 in the coming days!
So, the levels get set, and the coming days will give more clearness to the path we will move time ahead. Closing the gap and moving below the wave ((2)), blue, low at 28558 will give more confidence that a correction ina wave ((ii)) is underway.
Have a great weekend....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!