11/5/24 - $hwm - One to buy on dips, solid biz
11/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
HWM
One to buy on dips, solid biz
- tryin' to get ahead of rest of EPS pile today/tmr
- this one reports Wed AM (after we learn which fruit pie won at the county fair)
- i digress
- this thing is such a solid biz. genuinely feel life i've missed "the move", b/c at 2.2-2.5% fcf yield growing HSD-low doubles, and 33x next year PE, there's not too much on the valuation side that's giving me that great R/R
- on the converse, dips will likely be bought hardcore and "space" is a theme not going away and these guys have solid margins, a nice niche (lightweight metal mfg for key parts/ components), no stock based shenanigans like tech bro co's... it's a great biz
- a warren buffett stock, let's say
- so while i'd probably be tempted to buy a dip if say today we dive into the close on a risk-off situation (and it's flows related)... i might just have to sit this one out and wait for more of a macro pullback where the tide dunks all boats for the time being.
- that gap in the 70s would be "obvious" buy. but honestly, if we get there something's probably wrong. i think low 90s is good value and in the 80s is a solid place to get busy with a 1% stake. so setting my alarms accordingly and will monitor for the day, otherwise will report back if/when.
- congrats to the longs
V
HWMOne to buy on dips, solid biz
- tryin' to get ahead of rest of EPS pile today/tmr
- this one reports Wed AM (after we learn which fruit pie won at the county fair)
- i digress
- this thing is such a solid biz. genuinely feel life i've missed "the move", b/c at 2.2-2.5% fcf yield growing HSD-low doubles, and 33x next year PE, there's not too much on the valuation side that's giving me that great R/R
- on the converse, dips will likely be bought hardcore and "space" is a theme not going away and these guys have solid margins, a nice niche (lightweight metal mfg for key parts/ components), no stock based shenanigans like tech bro co's... it's a great biz
- a warren buffett stock, let's say
- so while i'd probably be tempted to buy a dip if say today we dive into the close on a risk-off situation (and it's flows related)... i might just have to sit this one out and wait for more of a macro pullback where the tide dunks all boats for the time being.
- that gap in the 70s would be "obvious" buy. but honestly, if we get there something's probably wrong. i think low 90s is good value and in the 80s is a solid place to get busy with a 1% stake. so setting my alarms accordingly and will monitor for the day, otherwise will report back if/when.
- congrats to the longs
V
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